College football is back, and the 2023 NFL season is right around the corner. That means it's time to start digging in on the 2024 draft class, which will feature multiple talented quarterbacks, instant-impact receivers and offensive linemen along with game-breaking defensive standouts. We're still nearly eight months out from the 2024 NFL draft, and a lot will change over the course of this season and the pre-draft process, but we're already evaluating this excellent prospect group.
We asked NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr., Matt Miller and Jordan Reid to answer 22 questions and make early predictions for what might happen next April. They predict everything from the number of first-round quarterbacks, to the school with the most drafted players, to sneaky sleepers who will rise over the next few months, to combine standouts. We also asked Kiper, Miller and Reid to project the College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy winner and how the top five draft picks will play out.
Over the course of the season, we will keep you up to speed with the latest rankings, mock drafts and other analysis, but let's get things rolling here with super early predictions on 22 topics, including top prospects and teams of interest.
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No. 1 pick | First-round QBs | Deepest position
Stacked rosters | Sleeper prospects | Workout stars
CFP picks | Heisman picks | Mini mocks
Who will be the No. 1 overall pick in 2024?
Reid: Caleb Williams to the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray is returning from a torn ACL, and the Cardinals are in a tricky situation if they want to make a change under center after extending the 2019 No. 1 pick last July. But it's clear they are also entering the early stages of a full roster rebuild, as shown by recent trades to compile draft picks. Williams, the 6-foot-1, 215-pound standout USC quarterback, has star potential in the NFL.
Kiper: Jordan's right on -- how could we say anything else at this point? Williams is the clear No. 1 quarterback in this class, and we know quarterbacks or edge rushers usually go No. 1 overall. When I did my summer scouting, I didn't see a pass-rusher who could go with the top pick. As for the Cardinals, the Vegas win total is 3.5, which is very low. Yes, they have Murray, but Williams is going to get an elite grade from me. I'm just glad I'm not the one who might have to figure out how to trade Murray.
Predict the top non-QB offensive player drafted.
Miller: There are a lot of really solid offensive players in the class, but I'm rolling with superstar Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. The son of the NFL Hall of Famer, Harrison has a 6-foot-4 frame and is 215 pounds with legitimate deep speed and a catch radius that makes him nearly impossible to defend. He is savvy and smooth, and he makes the hard parts of his job look easy. It's rare for wide receivers to be drafted in the top three selections -- it hasn't happened since Calvin Johnson in 2007 -- but Harrison has the talent to make a case for the No. 2 overall selection behind Williams.
Kiper: I love Harrison, and I'm with you, Matt. But don't rule out Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu (6-foot-6, 319 pounds). He could have been a top-10 pick in the 2023 draft if he hadn't returned to school. As I wrote in my Big Board rankings, in any other class -- one that didn't include Williams and Harrison -- he'd be the easy pick as the No. 1 overall prospect. Plus, there is a better history of offensive tackles going No. 1 or No. 2 than wideouts.
Predict the top defensive player drafted.
Reid: Florida State defensive end Jared Verse is my favorite going into the season, and I don't see it changing. He had no issue transferring from Albany to the FBS, recording nine sacks in 2022. Like Fashanu, many thought Verse was a potential top-10 pick had he declared for 2023, and he's now easily one of the best overall prospects in the country for 2024. There aren't many holes to his game; at 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, he has powerful hands as a run defender and can win with speed or power as a pass-rusher. Scouts will be flocking to early-season matchups against LSU and Clemson.
Miller: I'm going with Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. He's a 6-4, 242-pound do-it-all speed rusher who posted four sacks and seven tackles for loss last year, and he added a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Turner displays special get-off speed and uses his length very well to create distance from blockers. His game was still raw in 2022, but he played his best football down the stretch, and I'm betting on a big uptick in production to land him in the top five next April.
How many quarterbacks will go in Round 1?
Reid: Over the past decade, there have been at least two quarterbacks selected in the first round every year except 2022, when Kenny Pickett was the only one. That trend will continue, but I have only two true first-round quarterback prospects entering the season: USC's Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye. They are both very likely top-10 picks. That said, someone is going to emerge from the next tier and end up in Round 1, pushing the number to three. Texas' Quinn Ewers, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Oregon's Bo Nix and Duke's Riley Leonard are all passers who could catapult into Day 1 with strong seasons.
Matt Miller explains why Caleb Williams' scrambling and playmaking ability gives him an edge as a QB.
Who will emerge as QB3, assuming Williams and Maye remain 1-2?
Miller: Ewers has the most talent and potential of the quarterbacks not named Williams or Maye, and I believe the Texas signal-caller will play his way into the QB3 spot with a strong junior year. The 20-year-old has a loaded cast of receivers around him and is playing in a Steve Sarkisian scheme that highlights accurate, timing-based throws. We saw glimpses of greatness from the 6-foot-2, 195-pound Ewers last season before a non-throwing shoulder injury, but with a healthy campaign in 2023, his poise in the pocket, downfield arm strength and excellent timing will make him QB3.
Predict the midround QB scouts will fall in love with as a sleeper pick.
Kiper: I have 13 quarterbacks with draftable grades. That's a lot -- it's a strong class from top to bottom. A few will drop off, and a few will rise. So let's define "midround" as Round 4 or 5, in which case I'll go with Michael Pratt (Tulane). He has some intriguing traits in a 6-foot-3 frame. His completion rate jumped from 57.6% in 2021 to 63.6% in 2022, and he threw just five interceptions to 27 touchdown passes. He also has 23 rushing scores over three seasons. He's a good player scouts are watching closely.
Which position will have the most first-rounders?
Miller: The offensive tackle group is loaded and could realistically have seven players selected in Round 1. Referencing the OT depth, an AFC personnel executive said, "There's Pro Bowl tackles that'll be drafted in the second round." Fashanu (Penn State), Joe Alt (Notre Dame), Amarius Mims (Georgia), JC Latham (Alabama), Patrick Paul (Houston), Kingsley Suamataia (BYU) and Graham Barton (Duke) are all in my preseason top 40. I'll put the over/under on first-round offensive tackles at 6.5. As many as four could get drafted in the top 10 picks.
How many receivers will go in Round 1?
Kiper: We had four last year, all in the 20s, and six in 2021. I'll split the difference with five. My five are Harrison, Keon Coleman (Florida State), Malik Nabers (LSU), Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) and Rome Odunze (Washington). Xavier Worthy (Texas), Bru McCoy (Tennessee) and Johnny Wilson (Florida State) are lurking. I feel pretty safe in saying five.
Will we see a first-round running back?
Reid: I don't see one in 2024, and there isn't even a clear RB1 right now. Michigan's Donovan Edwards is the top rusher on my board entering the season, and backfield-mate Blake Corum has high-end traits. Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, Arkansas' Raheim Sanders, Ohio State's TreVeyon Henderson and Florida State's Trey Benson are all popular among scouts, too. There's a lot of talent here, but I'm not sure a team makes the plunge in Round 1 -- at least at this point.
Which school will produce the most first-rounders?
Reid: Ohio State is stacked again. This year's Buckeyes team doesn't have a highly touted quarterback prospect, but it could have as many as five first-round picks, starting with Harrison. Some scouts see him as the best receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson. Egbuka, another receiver, is a technician and advanced route runner with strong hands, while defensive end JT Tuimoloau is a powerful pass-rusher who could unlock another level of his game with more consistency. And then defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. and interior offensive lineman Donovan Jackson are getting Day 2 grades from scouts right now, but watch for them to quickly enter the first-round conversation if they start hot this season.
Predict a school that will have a sneaky number of top prospects drafted.
Miller: Sonny Dykes coached his TCU team to the national championship game last season in perhaps the surprise of the season. Now the Horned Frogs might be the surprise of the 2024 draft class, even after seeing eight players drafted in 2023. This group is headlined by strong defensive players such as cornerback Josh Newton and safety Mark Perry, and TCU overall has 23 players on my summer scouting list. Seven of them hold a potential top-100 grade, meaning I see them as candidates to go in the first three rounds.
Who will be the highest-drafted small school prospect in this class?
Kiper: Now we're talking. Give me Yale's Kiran Amegadjie, a 6-foot-5, 318-pound offensive tackle who looks like a man among boys playing in the Ivy League. He was at left tackle last season but played at a high level at guard in 2021. He's only a true junior, so there's no guarantee he enters the 2024 draft, but I have a third-round grade on him.
Predict a first-round sleeper.
Miller: Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean lined up at cornerback, safety and linebacker for the Hawkeyes in 2022. The former high school track star has the speed and leaping ability to wow scouts, and sources at Iowa say he'll run in the 4.3s in the 40-yard dash and stand out in the vertical and broad jumps at the combine. DeJean also notched five picks last season, returning three for touchdowns.
Kiper: Hey, that's exactly why DeJean is on my preseason Big Board! Here's another name for you: Eric Watts. He's a 6-foot-5, 277-pound edge rusher from UConn who had seven sacks last season. He has put on 60 pounds since he joined the team in 2019, and he has developed some pass-rush moves. I'm a fan. I gave him a second-round grade based on his 2022 tape, but he could rise.
Reid: Defensive tackle Leonard Taylor III (Miami-FL) has shown excellent flashes, and when watching the tape this summer, I saw first-round-caliber plays against Virginia, Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. But there is also a lot of unevenness to his game, and after being involved in a heavy rotation along the interior in 2022, Taylor (6-foot-3, 305 pounds) is expected to take on an expanded role in the Hurricanes' defense -- which could be key to finding more consistency. His first-step quickness and powerful hands could help him jump up the board.
Predict a player who will jump into the top 10 by the end of the college football season.
Kiper: I'm not as high on Ewers as Matt and Jordan right now, but he has a ton of talent. He's my sixth-ranked quarterback headed into the season. But if we're talking about a guy who could climb the board and who plays a position where we see these types of rises, he has to be the pick. Ewers has great playmakers around him at Texas to go along with an electric arm. If he can be more consistent, he has all the talent to be a top-10 pick.
Quinn Ewers hits Xavier Worthy in stride to put the White team in the red zone during the Texas spring game.
Predict the season's biggest non-Round 1 riser.
Kiper: This is not the sexiest answer, but I like Arizona offensive tackle Jordan Morgan. He was playing great football before he tore the ACL in his right knee last November. At 6-foot-5, 325 pounds, he has great technique and is light on his feet. He's back healthy for Week 1, and I'm excited to see him against some speedy Pac-12 edge rushers. He could be a top-50 pick.
Miller: Talking to scouts this summer, one of the hottest names was Adonai Mitchell. The Texas receiver had just nine catches for Georgia last season before transferring -- though three were touchdowns -- but scouts are raving about the 6-foot-4, 196-pounder's raw potential as a deep threat in the Longhorns' offense. If Ewers can improve his consistency under center, Mitchell is a name to remember as a big in-season riser in his junior year. He's a Day 2 prospect who could play his way into the top 50.
Reid: I'll go with Florida State tight end Jaheim Bell, who is in the early Day 3 range right now. A lot of evaluators thought Bell would break out last year, while he was still at South Carolina, and it didn't quite happen. But Bell is versatile with the ability to line up anywhere, and we'll see more of that from him at Florida State. He has really good pass-catching traits, and I've heard Titans tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo from scouts as an NFL comparison.
Name a prospect no one will be able to agree on next April.
Miller: We keep talking about Ewers, but he's the easy answer here. He is expected to revive Texas football this season, but he is only 20 years old, has limited starting experience and didn't look like the same player when he returned from a shoulder injury last season. Kiper -- who has Ewers much lower than Jordan and me -- was probably tracking the "almost" interceptions he threw last year, too. Still, the traits can't be ignored; Ewers has high-level arm strength and has displayed expert touch on deep passes.
Pick the prospect scouts will fall in love with because of his physical traits.
Reid: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia. At 6-foot-6, 330 pounds, Mims has only two career starts under his belt, and both came during last season's College Football Playoff. Linemen of his stature hardly ever have his level of balance and easy movement skills, and Mims doesn't sacrifice power, showing the ability to create holes as a run-blocker. I could see him entering the top half of Round 1 with a good showing this season.
Who will dominate the pre-draft testing at the combine?
Miller: At 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, Chop Robinson has already established himself as a workout legend among Penn State sources. The edge rusher reportedly timed sub-4.5 in the 40-yard-dash and has excellent short-area burst and body control, traits that will make him a star in the short shuttle and three-cone drills. The Nittany Lions have a strong track record of pre-draft stars, and Robinson is next on the list. With 5.5 sacks last season, Robinson is just inside the top 25 on my board.
Reid: As Matt mentioned earlier, DeJean is a former track star. He earned Class 2A Iowa state champ honors in the long jump and 100-meter dash as a high school senior, and he has the speed to break into the 4.3s in the 40-yard-dash. The 6-foot-1, 207-pound versatile defensive back is my top-ranked safety, though he has played all over the defense at Iowa, including cornerback.
Predict the College Football Playoff.
Miller: Michigan, Georgia, Clemson and Texas. I'm thinking outside the box with some new additions to the CFP, but Michigan has the returning star power on both sides of the ball to beat Ohio State for a third straight year en route to a Big 10 title, a No. 1 seed and a national title.
Kiper: Michigan, USC, LSU and Georgia. I've already picked the Wolverines on the "Dari and Mel" show, and I can't back out now. They're loaded with NFL talent.
Reid: Michigan, Georgia, Florida State and Texas. It's no secret that Michigan and Georgia are the two best teams in the country, though I'm also buying the FSU and Texas hype. But Georgia wins for a three-peat.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
Reid: Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State. On paper, this is the most talent Florida State has had since the 2015 national championship team. With key offensive transfer portal additions such as Coleman and Bell, Travis has a great supporting cast to make a run at a national title. His playmaking ability causes issues for defenses.
Miller: Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson. The sophomore flashed late last season, and with a full summer of work under his belt as the team's QB1, Klubnik has the tools, the spotlight and the offense around him to put up Heisman-winning numbers.
Kiper: Caleb Williams, QB, USC. I guess I'll be the boring one and pick the guy who just won it. But how can you not? He's going to put up incredible numbers in Lincoln Riley's offense ... again.
Mini mock time: Predict the top five picks, including how you think the draft order will play out.
Miller:
1. Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Cardinals (via HOU): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3. Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
4. Colts: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
5. Raiders: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
Read more: Miller's preseason mock
Reid:
1. Cardinals: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Buccaneers: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
3. Colts: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
4. Rams: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
5. Cardinals (via HOU): Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
Read more: Reid's summer mock
Matt Miller explains why he has USC QB Caleb Williams over UNC QB Drake Maye in his 2024 NFL mock draft.
Plant your flag: Predict anything else about the draft and/or class.
Miller: We know Harrison is the class' WR1, but I'm calling for LSU's Nabers to be WR2. The 6-foot, 201-pound wideout is a first-class run-after-catch player with excellent speed. He not only runs past coverage but also makes defenders miss in space. Nabers averaged over 14 yards per catch last season on 71 receptions, and while he scored just three touchdowns, I expect that number to soar in 2023 with better chemistry with quarterback Jayden Daniels in place.
Reid: The defensive tackle class will be the best group we've seen since 2019, which included six selected in the first round. I'm not sure the 2024 group will challenge that lofty number, but we could see as many as four picked on Day 1 and many others in Day 2 contention. Guys such as Taylor (Miami), Hall (Ohio State), Jer'Zhan Newton (Illinois), Kris Jenkins (Michigan) and Maason Smith (LSU) will all get early-pick buzz, but I also like Ruke Orhorhoro (Clemson), Nazir Stackhouse (Georgia) and McKinnley Jackson (Texas A&M) in the second and third rounds.