We're already approaching the midway mark of the 2023 NFL season, college football conference title games kick off in just a few weeks and the 2024 NFL draft is now six short months away. Scouts are digging in on this talented class, and some NFL teams -- nine have two or fewer wins -- have at least one eye to the future.
With that in mind, we wanted to take a midseason run through the first 32 picks of next April's draft, projecting top prospects to each spot. How many quarterbacks will go in Round 1, and who will land Caleb Williams and Drake Maye? Who is the top defensive player in the class, and will we see a Day 1 running back? Which positions are deepest in the first round, and which risers could sneak into the final few picks?
To fill out the draft order, we leaned on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which projected when each team might be picking based on simulations of the rest of the NFL season. Bears fans, rejoice -- Chicago has the No. 1 pick in this mock draft, thanks to the March 2023 trade with 0-6 Carolina. That is one of three picks that has already been traded, with Houston (to Arizona) and Cleveland (to Houston) joining that list. The Jets' first-rounder sticks in New York since Aaron Rodgers will not be playing 65% of the team's offensive snaps this season.
Here are my full predictions for all 32 picks in Round 1 at this point in the season.
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1. Chicago Bears (via 0-6 CAR)
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
For a second consecutive year, the Bears might end the season with the No. 1 overall pick -- this time courtesy of the trade with the Panthers. ESPN's FPI is giving this Carolina pick a 39.8% chance to end up at No. 1, which would set up an interesting decision for the Bears. The jury is still out on Justin Fields as the team's long-term solution under center. He ranks 27th in Total QBR (39.3) and 26th in completion percentage (61.7%). General manager Ryan Poles does not have any ties to Fields -- he didn't draft him back in 2021 -- and the QB's development as a passer has been inconsistent.
Williams would allow the Bears to reset the clock with a rookie contract and add my No. 1 player in the class. His field vision and dynamic ability to be a problem solver when plays break down make Williams special. He has eight completions of 20-plus yards when on the move this season, including eight TD passes and only one interception. And Chicago has another first-rounder to build around Williams.
Team needs: EDGE, WR, C
2. Arizona Cardinals (1-6)
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
This pick depends heavily on the play of Kyler Murray, who returned to practice last week after suffering a torn ACL in December. I could see Arizona considering UNC quarterback Drake Maye in this spot if it decides to move on from Murray. But since the Cardinals are still in the early portions of rebuilding the roster, they should be focused on adding the best players available. That's Harrison here at No. 2, as some scouts believe he's actually an even better prospect than Williams. He could be the first wideout picked this high since Calvin Johnson in 2007.
Harrison's range as a pass-catcher and nuance as route runner are unmatched in 2024's group of receivers. He has 42 catches for 766 yards and six TDs this season.
Team needs: WR, DL, CB
3. Denver Broncos (2-5)
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
After a disastrous 5-12 season in 2022, the Broncos are once again struggling through the first half of the 2023 campaign. Yes, Russell Wilson is playing better, but he hasn't totally clicked with new coach Sean Payton and is outside the top 20 in QBR (46.1). Wilson's contract makes things tricky when it comes to adding another signal-caller, but Maye is too good to pass up. In fact, the QB1 race isn't quite over, as Maye could make up ground on Williams.
Maye has a good arm and has been an effective downfield passer this season, with 26 completions of 20-plus yards.
Team needs: OL, DL, WR
Drake Maye runs into the end zone untouched as North Carolina starts to pull away.
4. New York Giants (2-5)
Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Giants have already invested heavily in the offensive line during the Joe Schoen regime, but the early returns on Evan Neal have been disappointing. A move inside to guard could be a possibility for the 2022 first-rounder. The Giants are second in the NFL in sacks allowed (37) and lack depth across the board. The value at other positions of need -- wide receiver? -- at this spot isn't there, so let's pair Fashanu with Andrew Thomas to give the team a pair of bookend tackles to better protect quarterback Daniel Jones.
At 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds, Fashanu has the lower-body quickness and effortless pass set to match the movement of rushers. And gaining strength throughout his frame will help him develop as a run-blocker.
Team needs: WR, OT, IOL
5. Chicago Bears (2-5)
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
I was surprised the Bears weren't very aggressive in adding edge rushers during the offseason, and the results haven't been good; the team has 10 sacks this season, the second-fewest in the league. Adding young edge rushers in the 2024 draft should be a priority, and Turner fits the mold. He has assumed the Will Anderson Jr. role in the Alabama defense this season and shown advancement as a pass-rusher. Turner is not only finishing better (8.0 sacks), but he's also generating pressure at an impressive rate. His 19.3% pressure percentage is the fifth-best mark in the FBS.
Walking out of Round 1 with Williams and Turner would be a big win for Chicago.
Team needs: EDGE, WR, C
6. Washington Commanders (3-4)
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Commanders are on pace to set a new NFL record for sacks given up after they have surrendered 40 through seven games. Offensive tackle is a clear need, and Alt would solve a lot of their problems. A towering presence at 6-foot-8 and 315 pounds, he has shown substantial growth in all areas of his game this season. Alt has allowed only three pressures and one sack in 236 pass-blocking snaps this season, and he projects as a high-end starter right away.
Washington might also think about QB here with the uneven play from Sam Howell, but the QB3 race is hard to sort out at the moment. If Colorado's Shedeur Sanders enters the draft, he could be the pick here. If Texas' Quinn Ewers, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy or Washington's Michael Penix Jr. elevate their play over the rest of the season, they could be in the mix, too. But for now, let's give the Commanders some protection.
Team needs: OT, EDGE, TE
7. New England Patriots (2-5)
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
You would have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time the Patriots drafted an offensive playmaker who turned into a standout player: Rob Gronkowski. And with Bowers sitting atop the best available list, New England can land a special tight end to improve QB Mac Jones' supporting cast. He's an ideal fit in the Patriots' offense. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are both scheduled to be free agents, so Bowers would immediately be a go-to option. The Georgia star is out with a left ankle injury, but he had 567 receiving yards over seven games before having surgery.
New England could look to address their QB situation, too, but it's hard to envision coach Bill Belichick wanting to start over with a young passer. Instead, Bowers could help Jones regain his rookie-season form.
Team needs: OT, QB, WR
8. Las Vegas Raiders (3-4)
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Las Vegas has a considerable amount of needs on the defensive side of the ball, and it lacks a true CB1. Jakorian Bennett, Nate Hobbs and Amik Robertson are productive young players with potential, but with Marcus Peters on a one-year deal and turning 31 years old this season, the Raiders need more on the outside. At 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, McKinstry has the length and ball skills to eventually turn into a top NFL corner.
Team needs: IOL, CB, DL
9. Green Bay Packers (2-4)
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Packers haven't drafted a tackle in the first round since 2011 (Derek Sherrod), trusting their ability to develop Day 2 and Day 3 selections. But injuries and some players not taking the next step have led to an inconsistent front in Green Bay. And quarterback Jordan Love has a 31.6% completion percentage under pressure this season, 30th in the NFL.
Latham is a rock-solid right tackle prospect who is a people-mover in the run game and has good feet to mirror pass-rushers. He has unique strength and movement skills for a 6-foot-6, 360-pounder, and I see some similarities to Tyler Smith when he was coming out of Tulsa in 2022.
Team needs: OT, S, RB
10. Tennessee Titans (2-4)
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
There are a lot of directions the Titans could go with a top-10 pick. With the trade of safety Kevin Byard, the team hinted at an incoming rebuild. Kristian Fulton is scheduled to become a free agent after the season, so the Titans will likely be searching for a corner alongside Sean Murphy-Bunting. Scouts have been intrigued by Wiggins -- a long and active man-to-man corner -- all season. He is physical in press coverage but also has the awareness to make plays in zone.
Team needs: OT, DT, CB
11. Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the transfer portal, Coleman has exploded since transferring from Michigan State to Florida State. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he has the ability to make a wide array of catches. Since the beginning of last season, Coleman leads the FBS in contested touchdown catches (10). Having that type of target to go along with Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and a surging Josh Downs could be huge for a young passer like Anthony Richardson. (Plus, Pittman is a free agent after the 2023 season, which means there could be an open spot on the depth chart.)
Team needs: CB, WR, EDGE
Keon Coleman gets Florida State into Syracuse territory with a miraculous one-handed catch.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Verse provides an immediate upgrade for Todd Bowles' defense off the edge. Verse hasn't had the same sack production (2.5) that he had last season (9.0) when he burst onto the scene after transferring from Albany, but his pressure numbers have remained consistent with a 13.8% pressure rate. His combination of powerful hands as a run defender and speed-to-power pass-rush moves make him among the most NFL-ready prospects in the class.
Team needs: EDGE, C, TE
13. Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bengals' offense has been surprisingly stagnant so far this season, struggling to generate explosive plays. They have seven completions for 20-yards or more, a league-low. And with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin all in contract years, wide receiver is likely to be at the top of Cincinnati's offseason priority list. Odunze is a well-rounded target who can attack defenses at all three levels. He has reliable hands and big-play potential, with 86.7% of his catches resulting in first downs or touchdowns this season.
Alternatively, the Bengals could look to the offensive line with Georgia tackle Amarius Mims still on the board.
Team needs: OT, WR, RB
14. New York Jets (3-3)
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims has been sidelined since the third game of the season after undergoing TightRope surgery on his ankle. Coming into the season, many scouts saw him joining the top tier of offensive tackle prospects alongside Fashanu and Alt, and the talent is evident. The back end of Georgia's schedule will be key for him once he returns from injury, as Mims has never allowed a sack but only has five career starts. If he can build off what we've already seen, he's likely to be a quick riser during the pre-draft process. And since the Jets still have an unsettled offensive line, Mims could make a lot of sense here in the middle of Round 1.
Team needs: OT, S, QB
15. New Orleans Saints (3-4)
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Saints have a decision to make with Michael Thomas in the offseason. But even if they keep him, they must continue to find offensive playmakers for Derek Carr. New Orleans ranks 28th in yards per play this season (4.6).
Nabers has been one of the most explosive players in the country this season, with an FBS-leading 981 receiving yards. His game complements the downfield ability of Chris Olave, plus he has the versatility to threaten defenses from either the slot or the outside.
Team needs: OL, DL, WR
16. Arizona Cardinals (via 3-3 HOU)
Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
We gave Arizona a receiver in Harrison at No. 2 overall, but let's continue to stack talent on this roster with a second first-rounder via the 2023 draft-day trade. The Cardinals need a dominating presence in the middle of their defense. Newton is a versatile interior defender who has played every alignment during his career. The tape shows him to be not only a penetrating first-level defender but also a disruptive pass-rusher. His performance against Wisconsin on Saturday (six tackles, tackle for loss, forced fumble and a sack) was the best game I've seen from a defensive prospect this season.
Team needs: WR, DL, CB
17. Los Angeles Chargers (2-4)
Kalen King, CB, Penn State
After trading J.C. Jackson to the Pats, the Chargers lack depth at outside corner -- especially since Michael Davis is set to be a free agent in the spring. King is an active and quick-footed corner, and since the Chargers play man coverage on 49.8% of defensive snaps (10th-highest percentage), his aggression in press could help Los Angeles. His ball skills also stand out; King hasn't picked off a pass yet this season, but he had three interceptions and 15 pass breakups in 2022.
Team needs: CB, DL, RB
18. Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
Paul would bring some stability to an inconsistent Rams offensive line, a unit that ranks 27th in pass block win rate (46.9%) this season. He is an easy mover in pass protection who can match and mirror rushers at 6-foot-7, 315 pounds. And Paul has surrendered just two pressures and one sack this season on 250 pass-blocking attempts. He just needs to get stronger. If you're looking for a player comparison for Paul, he reminds me a lot of D.J. Humphries when he was a Florida prospect back in 2015.
Team needs: EDGE, CB, OL
19. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
If there's one positive to take away from the Falcons' first seven games, it's their defense. That said, the edge-rush production has been underwhelming. The Falcons have a 35.6% pass rush win rate off the edge, which ranks 29th in the NFL.
Here's our solve: Trice is a power rusher who wins by overwhelming blockers at the point of attack, and at 6-foot-4 and 274 pounds, he fits the mold of what Atlanta covets in defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen's scheme. He has been limited to one sack in 2023, but he had nine last season.
Team needs: OT, DL, CB
20. Minnesota Vikings (3-4)
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Vikings haven't drafted an edge rusher in the first round since 2005, when they selected Erasmus James at No. 18. And outside of Danielle Hunter -- who's in the final year of his deal and might even be traded before the Oct. 31 deadline -- Minnesota can't generate any type of pass-rush presence off the edge.
One consistent draft strategy theme we've seen from GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is picking explosive players on defense, and that's Latu. His 22.3% pressure percentage is the second-best mark in the FBS. I am extremely high on Latu, as he's the No. 13 player on my board. But medicals will be a major part of his pre-draft evaluation since he medically retired from football after neck injuries at Washington before getting clearance to return in 2022.
Team needs: EDGE, DT, QB
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Cooper DeJean, S/CB, Iowa
Outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr., the Steelers' secondary could be completely revamped in 2024 -- and DeJean could help at multiple spots. He has played primarily at corner for the Hawkeyes, but he's my top-ranked safety because of his versatility. His physical mentality fits perfectly with Pittsburgh's culture, and his ability to generate takeaways would be welcomed. DeJean has seven picks over the past two seasons.
Team needs: CB, S, C
22. Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Brandon Dorlus, EDGE, Oregon
How about this Seattle interior? The addition of Dre'Mont Jones and welcoming back Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed has paid dividends. But the Seahawks are among the most unpredictable teams in the first round, and we could see them continue to add up front.
I expect Dorlus to climb boards as we get closer to April. Every West Coast area scout I've talked to raves about him and the strides he's making this season (four sacks). Dorlus is a bit of a tweener at 6-foot-3 and 290 pounds, but his combination of speed out of the starting blocks, active hands and disruption as a pass-rusher could make him a key part of Seattle's rotation early.
Team needs: LB, IOL, DL
23. Houston Texans (via 4-2 CLE)
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
The Texans dealt away their own first-rounder but have Cleveland's pick as part of the Deshaun Watson trade.
Some NFL teams like to pair young passers with receivers whom they played with in college. Jaylen Waddle joined Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. Ja'Marr Chase picked up where he left off with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. So let's have Houston continue the trend with Egbuka -- C.J. Stroud's former teammate at Ohio State -- improving the Texans' wide receiver group. He has battled through a nagging leg injury this season, but when healthy, he's a savvy route runner who understands how to get open, averaging 15.7 yards per catch over his career.
Team needs: DT, WR, LB
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2)
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Travon Walker hasn't developed as fast as the team had hoped, and maybe Jacksonville could try to slide him inside. Regardless, the Jags need help opposite of Josh Allen, who is their most consistent pass-rusher with seven sacks. Robinson is explosive and has the bend to finish at the quarterback. His average time to generate pressure is 2.38 seconds, the third-quickest mark in the FBS this season. He can line up in multiple alignments and collapse the pocket in a hurry.
Robinson exited Saturday's game against Ohio State after a hit to the helmet, so his status will be monitored.
Team needs: EDGE, CB, WR
25. Detroit Lions (5-2)
JT Tuimoloau, EDGE, Ohio State
The Lions have struggled to find consistency opposite of Aidan Hutchinson this season, but Tuimoloau is a well-developed run defender with a game that centers around power. He quickly collapses the pocket with the strength in hands. And since Tuimoloau will be best-served as a complementary pass-rusher at the next level, playing with Hutchinson gives him the perfect NFL role. He has 7.5 sacks over the past two seasons.
Team needs: CB, WR, DT
26. Buffalo Bills (4-3)
Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami
Defensive tackle is one of the biggest needs for the Bills heading into 2024. Ed Oliver is the only interior defender signed past this season, and the Bills could be looking for reinforcements inside. But the value on the board just doesn't match the draft slot.
So we'll pivot. With Micah Hyde in the final year of his deal and Jordan Poyer only signed for two seasons, safety might be a first-round target. Kinchens is versatile and can play multiple alignments, but it's his ball skills that stand out. He can crowd throwing windows and make plays, picking off eight passes and breaking up 19 over two seasons as a full-time starter.
Team needs: DT, LB, DB
Kamren Kinchens hauls in the interception and keeps both feet in-bounds to give Miami a chance to take a lead.
27. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Tyron Smith is in the middle of the final year of his contract, and with the Dallas O-line's injury history, adding an offensive tackle early makes sense. Suamataia played right tackle last season and transitioned to the left side, where he looks more natural. Through six games this season, he has allowed one pressure and is yet to give up a sack. Suamataia could provide versatility up front in Dallas and serve as the heir to Smith at left tackle.
Team needs: OT, CB, RB
28. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan
Baltimore has a bunch of upcoming free agents on defense, including Justin Madubuike and Michael Pierce along the defensive line. And the Ravens love to draft players in the trenches in the early rounds.
At 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds, Jenkins is an ideal fit in their defense, as he has the versatility to line up at either defensive end spot. He's a stout run defender and can penetrate into the backfield to disrupt plays. Jenkins is still improving his pass-rush plan, but his explosiveness and active hands give him room to grow.
Team needs: DL, RB, CB
29. Miami Dolphins (5-2)
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Even though the offensive line has played better this season, right tackle could quickly become a position of need since the team didn't pick up Austin Jackson's fifth-year option. A quick riser over the past two months, Guyton went from an H-back at TCU two seasons ago to an essential part of the Sooners' offensive line today. He has allowed only three pressures and no sacks in 2023. Guyton plays with an aggressive demeanor but must continue to add strength. The 6-foot-7 pass-blocker could help keep Tagovailoa upright and this Miami offense moving downfield.
Team needs: DT, OL, TE
30. Philadelphia Eagles (6-1)
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
We know the Eagles value depth in the trenches when it comes to their first-round picks, and Morgan has the flexibility to play all over the offensive line. He has played right and left tackle during his career, but there are some scouts who actually believe Morgan is better suited inside at guard. Either way, Morgan would give Philadelphia options. He generates movement in the run game but also has the lower-body balance to remain in front of pass-rushers.
Team needs: LB, RB, IOL
31. San Francisco 49ers (5-2)
Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
If there's one spot that lacks depth on the 49ers' defense, it's cornerback. An instinctive, agile and physical perimeter defender, Lassiter has broken out as a junior in 2023. He has the traits to quickly become an NFL starter, and it's no surprise that passers are completing a mere 35% of throws into his coverage this season, among the top 50 in the FBS. Lassiter is also one of the country's best tacklers and an asset as a run-defender.
Team needs: CB, OL, WR
32. Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)
Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
The Chiefs have poured resources into finding young pass-catchers for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, including a second-round pick in April on Rashee Rice, the most consistent of Kansas City's receiver bunch. But the offense still lacks the explosive element that we've seen in past seasons. Franklin has caught a pass of 30 or more yards in six out of seven games this season. At 6-foot-3, 187 pounds, he's a long-striding three-level threat who can race past defenders, averaging 11.8 air yards per target.
Team needs: DT, WR, LB