We're a little more than halfway through the 2022 NFL season, and fans are wondering whether their favorite team will make the playoffs. The standings tell part of the story, but they don't show us everything. The strength of each team, remaining schedules and current division/conference landscapes also play big roles. Let's divide all 32 teams into playoff picture tiers.
I'll be relying on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections, remaining strength of schedule, past performance metrics, the betting market and a dash of intuition in placing these teams into seven tiers, ranging from no-brainer Super Bowl contenders to teams playing out the string. And along the way, NFL Nation reporters will use their expertise to add critical X factors for each team -- that is, what could cause each franchise to move up or down tiers before the end of the regular season.
Note: Teams are organized within tiers by overall confidence, and the FPI chances were updated after all of Sunday's games.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Tier 1: True Super Bowl contenders
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.8%
There's no quarterback I'd rather have than Patrick Mahomes, and no offense I'd rather have than the Chiefs' unit. The most important thing for a team to be good at is the passing game, and the Chiefs are No. 1 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Pass rush. Kansas City is more productive here than last season, when it finished 29th in the league in sacks. The Chiefs have turned up their rush at key times, but they still are looking for more consistency. Pressure hasn't been a steady presence for the Chiefs, who have struggled when they don't blitz. And at time -- like in a Week 6 loss to the Bills -- even the blitz fails to get home. -- Adam Teicher
Philadelphia Eagles (8-0)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Undefeated and with an easy schedule ahead, the only question for the Eagles is how far they'll go in the playoffs. This is a complete team. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is playing well, Philly is strong in the trenches, the secondary is ferocious, and A.J. Brown is one of the league's best receivers right now. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Hurts. The Eagles are undefeated in large part because Hurts has elevated his game as a passer. He is completing 68% of his throws, up from 61% last year. And he has protected the football, with three turnovers. If he can maintain this level of play, this team will be borderline unstoppable. -- Tim McManus
Buffalo Bills (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 96.7%
An elite offense paired with a top-five defense? What more could you want? Even with Josh Allen's occasional miscues, which showed up in Sunday's overtime loss to Minnesota, the Bills are a force on both sides of the ball. On defense, Von Miller has been a huge addition to the pass rush, and the Bills haven't even gotten cornerback Tre'Davious White (ACL) back yet. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Allen's health. Everything surrounding the rest of the Bills' season relies on the health of Allen, who is dealing with an injury to the UCL in his right elbow. He has accounted for 24 of the Bills' 27 offensive touchdowns, and while he started on Sunday, the team needs its star QB at full strength. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Tier 2: Playoff locks
Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 99.8%
Despite a huge win in overtime on Sunday over the Bills, the Vikings probably are not as good as the other teams destined for the playoffs. They ranked 12th in ESPN's FPI before Sunday's game and aren't considered elite on either side of the ball. But -- and it's a big but -- they have banked eight wins. The Vikings have certainly done enough to make it into the tournament. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Player health. The Vikings have been extraordinarily healthy this season, with only three starters missing one start apiece in the team's first eight games. It's an especially noteworthy trend given the age of some of their key players, especially on defense. The list includes safety Harrison Smith (33), cornerback Patrick Peterson (32) and a trio of linebackers who are 30: Jordan Hicks, Eric Kendricks, and Za'Darius Smith. -- Kevin Seifert
Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 98.5%
The Cowboys are in this spot because of their defense, but it's the offense that presents the most upside. Going 4-1 under backup quarterback Cooper Rush gave Dallas a playoff cushion and highlighted its potential. If it can survive with Rush, how much can it thrive with Dak Prescott? The Cowboys' offense is a top-10 unit with Prescott on the field, and Dallas can pair that with a top-10 defense. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Passing offense. Everyone knows the run defense needs to get better, but the offensive pass game will be more important. The Cowboys need to be able to throw and score more points, as they have just 23 pass plays of 20 yards or more. They could also be in the running for free agent wideout Odell Beckham Jr., who is coming off a serious knee injury but would certainly help. -- Todd Archer
Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 97.4%
Baltimore is arguably the best designed-rush team in the league and slightly above average when dropping back to pass. The defense has been decent, as well. But look at the cushy slate of quarterbacks the Ravens will face down the stretch: Marcus Mariota, a struggling Russell Wilson and two matchups against rookie Kenny Pickett. That makes Baltimore a near-lock for a postseason spot. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Second-half schedule. The Ravens are not only the favorites to win the AFC North, but they are also a sleeper for the AFC's No. 1 seed because they have one of the easiest remaining schedules. Baltimore only faces one team with a winning record (Bengals at 5-4) in the final eight weeks. The Ravens have the potential to go on a major run, considering Lamar Jackson is 22-3 as a starter against teams with losing records. -- Jamison Hensley
Tier 3: Likely, but no promises
Miami Dolphins (7-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 87.2%
Here is a wild number: The Dolphins' EPA per play with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on the field is 0.19. That would rank first in the NFL if he hadn't missed parts of other three games. In fact, if Tagovailoa had stayed healthy, the Dolphins might be in Tier 1 here. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Defensive performance. The Dolphins entered the season expecting last season's defensive success to carry over, but they've been average to below-average, ranking 26th in defensive expected points added against, 22nd in yards allowed per play and 27th in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Trading for linebacker Bradley Chubb should inject some life into this unit, though. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 88.6%
The 49ers are above average on both sides of the ball, and we know the potential this team has thanks to its run to the NFC Championship Game last season. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is breaking out, and running back Christian McCaffrey is on board now, so Kyle Shanahan has all the playmakers he needs. While Seattle has been a surprise, disappointing starts from the Rams and Cardinals have laid out a fairly easy path for the Niners to take the NFC West. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Second-half schedule. The Niners' schedule now looks far different than it did when it was released, with just two games remaining against teams with a winning record (Dolphins, Seahawks). The 49ers play five of their final eight games at home, and a sixth in Mexico City against Arizona will likely be a Niners-leaning crowd. Moreover, once San Francisco returns from Mexico, it won't leave the Pacific Time zone again in the regular season. -- Nick Wagoner
New York Giants (7-2)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 88.4%
The Giants have seven wins and an easy remaining schedule -- including the Lions, Colts and Commanders twice. Quarterback Daniel Jones is having the best season of his career -- which is remarkable considering his lack of receiving targets -- and ranks eighth in QBR. That's a pretty good combination of things in New York's favor. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Kenny Golladay. The Giants are crossing their fingers hoping Golladay returns to some semblance of his former self. It's unlikely considering the receiver has missed four games with a knee injury, and even before that, New York didn't believe he was good enough to start every week. But the Giants are hoping that 48% catch rate and zero touchdowns he has produced in 19 games with them magically improves to give them some kind of reasonable weapon for Jones to work with on the outside. -- Jordan Raanan
Tennessee Titans (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 82.1%
The best thing the Titans have going for them? Their division. Yes, they're effective at stopping the run, and running back Derrick Henry has had his moments on offense. But it's the weakness of the rest of the AFC South that makes them a very likely playoff team ... and the lack of a passing offense that prevents them from being a lock. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: The passing game. The Titans' passing game ranks 31st in yardage in the NFL and their 34.8 QBR is 28th, so opposing defenses can devote most of their resources toward stopping Henry. With Ryan Tannehill back under center after missing time and throwing a pair of TD passes on Sunday, can Tennessee get going through the air? -- Turron Davenport
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 79.8%
ESPN's FPI is more bullish on the Bucs, but their circumstances really are favorable. They are by far the most talented team in the division and have Tom Brady at quarterback. The offensive line is a concern, and the receivers haven't lived up to the hype, but the defense is good, and there's always potential for a Brady-led rebound. We've already seen a bit of an improvement with back-to-back wins. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Brady's supporting cast. It's clear that the 2022 Bucs are a much different team from the past two years. When healthy, the defense has been a real force -- but the offense has to pick up the slack. Tampa Bay is tied for the NFL lead in drops (19) and its 70.7 rushing yards per game rank 31st. -- Jenna Laine
Tier 4: We're leaning yes
Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 66.3%
It's not just quarterback Geno Smith's stunning emergence that puts the Seahawks in this position, but everything else around him on offense, too. Crucially, the offensive line has been a welcomed surprise, as it ranks fourth in pass block win rate, and rookie tackles Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross have been both been above average or better. The receiver play from Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf also has been superb. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: The rookie class. Nothing about Smith's excellent start seems unsustainable, as unexpected as it is. But you can't assume that the Seahawks will continue to get the same level of production from their stellar draft class, which has a pair of Rookie of the Year candidates in cornerback Tariq Woolen and running back Kenneth Walker III. Can they avoid the proverbial rookie wall as they get further into the 17-game slate? -- Brady Henderson
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 66.2%
The Bengals are an offensive juggernaut at their peak, especially when currently injured wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is on the field. Once again, however, the offensive line is a huge concern. It ranks 31st in pass block win rate. That's a unit that can quickly stifle the offense, which is why Cincinnati is not a sure thing to reach the postseason. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Chase. He has missed the past two games with a hip injury. But if he returns around Week 12 or 13, he'll have plenty of time to help the Bengals make a playoff push alongside quarterback Joe Burrow, running back Joe Mixon and fellow receiver Tee Higgins. -- Ben Baby
New York Jets (6-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 72.2%
Quarterback Zach Wilson remains a problem, but everything else looks like a solution. The rookies are hits, with wide receiver Garrett Wilson and cornerback Sauce Gardner playing extremely well. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams leads a feisty pass rush. And with an easy schedule the rest of the way, the Jets have a great chance to make the postseason for the first time since 2010. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Zach Wilson. When Wilson plays mistake-free football, the Jets can play with anyone because their defense is so strong. When he gets careless and commits turnovers, though, the Jets are an average team. Wilson is 5-1 as the starter, so he's clearly capable of adhering to this formula. -- Rich Cimini
Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 50.4%
Injuries have struck the Chargers hard, but they also haven't reached the potential of what a Justin Herbert-led team ought to be, particularly because they have played an easy schedule. And yet, they are the second-best team in the once-vaunted AFC West. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Injuries. The Chargers appeared ready-made for the playoffs heading into the season, but injuries have limited them. Herbert has been battling through fractured rib cartilage since Week 2. Receiver Keenan Allen has been dealing with a hamstring injury that has limited him to half a game since Week 1. Fellow receiver Mike Williams is working through a high ankle sprain. And left tackle Rashawn Slater, cornerback J.C. Jackson and edge rusher Joey Bosa are on injured reserve, with Slater and Jackson out for the season. -- Lindsey Thiry
Tier 5: Weirder things have happened ...
Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 21.7%
That the Falcons are eighth in EPA per play on offense -- despite having Marcus Mariota at quarterback in a super run-heavy scheme -- is a huge credit to coach Arthur Smith. The defense is a liability, but somehow Atlanta is in this because there's no guarantee the Bucs will actually fully get on track. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Second-half schedule. Only the Ravens are over .500 among teams the Falcons still have to play, and Smith has found ways to keep his team in every game. Atlanta also has head-to-head tiebreakers over both the 49ers and Seahawks in the wild-card race. -- Michael Rothstein
New England Patriots (5-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 20.4%
While the Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe quarterback drama took the headlines for a few weeks in October, the Patriots have a shot at the postseason because of their defense. The unit is stellar, ranking first in EPA per play. New England's schedule is a roadblock, though. The team is favored in only one game the rest of the way, according to ESPN's FPI -- the Week 11 matchup with the Jets. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Offensive line. If it doesn't get better, it's hard to imagine the Patriots will be playing in the postseason. They're just too inconsistent and not giving Jones enough of a chance to find a comfort level. The return of starting center David Andrews, who has missed the past two games with a concussion, offers a glimmer of hope that perhaps things could turn around. -- Mike Reiss
Green Bay Packers (4-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 18.1%
It's basically blind faith in a Hall of Fame quarterback and a few other stars that give the Packers any chance at all. Aaron Rodgers has played poorly this season, though he did throw three touchdowns on Sunday in a big win. But it also turns out that not having any good receivers really brings down an offense. Losing edge rusher Rashan Gary for the season also hurts Green Bay's chances of living up to the preseason hype. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: If Rodgers becomes Rodgers again. More than once during this losing streak, Rodgers has mentioned that he expects that "typical stretch ... where we get really hot." While he's running out of time and doesn't seem to have the supporting cast to back his claim, he's still the reigning NFL MVP. And it's unlikely he has declined that much in such a short period. -- Rob Demovsky
Arizona Cardinals (4-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 12.3%
If the Cardinals had one area for hope, it was the receiver combination of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown playing together to invigorate the offense. But Brown suffered a foot injury that delayed the pair sharing the field, and it might be too late when he returns later this month. The Cardinals are lackluster on both sides of the ball and don't have enough wins to make a run, barring something highly unusual. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Kliff Kingsbury. Well, it all depends on if he's around for most of the second-half run. Another loss or two, and Kingsbury could be looking for a new job by December. But if he can figure out a way to turn this Cardinals team around soon, they have the talent to make a run at the playoffs, especially when the last wild-card spot is within reach. -- Josh Weinfuss
Cleveland Browns (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 4.5%
A hyper-efficient ground game has led the Browns to a solid offense, even with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. It means the ceiling is even higher when Deshaun Watson returns in Week 13 after completing his 11-game suspension. The question now for the Browns: How many wins can they bank before then in hopes of making a playoff run? -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Watson. The quarterback is set to return in Week 13 after serving his suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. He led the NFL in passing just two seasons ago, and if he quickly regains that form despite not playing since 2020, Cleveland could be primed to surge down the stretch. -- Jake Trotter
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 8.5%
Neither ESPN's FPI nor I can quit the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence is playing better this year, improving from 28th in QBR last season to 16th this year. Both the offense and defense have been above average. And they play in a weak division. That's a decent recipe for reaching the postseason, but they'll need things to break right to overcome the odds. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Lawrence. When he has played well, the Jaguars have won games. He has had four games in which his QBR has been higher than 65, and the Jaguars are 3-1 in those contests. The only loss came at Indianapolis, when the defense couldn't hold the lead Lawrence gave them with less than three minutes remaining. -- Mike DiRocco
Tier 6: Yes, I'm telling you there's a chance
Washington Commanders (4-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 10.9%
The Commanders are fortunate to even have a shot given their quarterback play. Taylor Heinicke (43.0 QBR) has outplayed Carson Wentz (33 QBR) this season, but neither has been great. The defense is solid, however. The Commanders would need a slew of lucky wins to have a shot at the playoffs, and I'd be stunned if they are there in the end. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Run game. Washington's defense has played well lately, as a top-10 unit in multiple categories. But the Commanders need more production from running backs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. to help out Heinicke if Washington hopes to make a wild-card push. Washington's 4.1 yards per rush is 27th in the NFL. -- John Keim
Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 15.9%
Their record might not look that bad, but the Colts' season likely ended when the team switched to Sam Ehlinger at quarterback (they switched back to Matt Ryan in Week 10) and made Jeff Saturday its interim coach. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Hiring Saturday as coach. It's hard to imagine being put in a worse situation for your first foray into NFL coaching than this. Saturday takes the helm of a struggling team as an outsider who will have to gain credibility in the locker room. The team has already been hit with massive changes, including the moves from Ryan to Ehlinger and back to Ryan, and the firings of offensive coordinator Marcus Brady and coach Frank Reich. Can Saturday manage to somehow balance the on-the-job training he needs with fixing the Colts? -- Stephen Holder
Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 5.6%
Not having Odell Beckham Jr. or Robert Woods at receiver, plus a dramatic drop in offensive line performance -- the Rams ranked first in pass block win rate last year but are now 23rd -- has led to one of worst offenses in the NFL. Los Angeles isn't quite toast, but it is going to have to beat the odds and grab a few upsets to have a chance. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Offensive line. There were questions about how the line would perform going into the season after left tackle Andrew Whitworth retired this offseason, but the Rams never really got a chance to see how it would fare because they've dealt with so many injuries and have played eight different line combinations this season. The line is getting healthier, and if it can protect quarterback Matthew Stafford the rest of the way, that will go a long way in turning this offense around. -- Sarah Barshop
New Orleans Saints (3-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 5.8%
The Saints are the pinnacle of mediocrity -- they rank 20th in offensive EPA per play and 13th in defensive EPA per play -- but being average isn't good enough to make a playoff run. Even when playing in the NFC South. Rookie wideout Chris Olave is awesome, though, and ranks fifth in the Receiver Tracking Metrics' Overall Score. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Getting some injured players back. The Saints have showed they're fully capable of playing up to their potential but can't seem to find consistency. They have made too many mistakes to take advantage of a bad NFC South. But getting players like starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore or wide receiver Jarvis Landry (who returned on Sunday) back might give them a jolt. -- Katherine Terrell
Tier 7: Rest up for 2023
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 1.5%
On paper, the ingredients are there for a successful team. It just hasn't turned out that way. Derek Carr ranks 10th in QBR behind an average pass-protecting offensive line (which is still a huge upgrade from recent Las Vegas teams). But the defense is a major liability, and that has been too much to overcome. The result is a lost year for the Raiders. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Roster star power. The Raiders have five Pro Bowlers on offense and three more on defense. Though tight end Darren Waller and receiver Hunter Renfrow went on IR this week, it's simply a matter of time before everything starts to come together for first-year coach Josh McDaniels, right? Right?!? -- Paul Gutierrez
Carolina Panthers (3-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 2.4%
Somehow, the Panthers managed to have a poor 2022 season and also hurt their future chances by turning down two first-round picks for defensive end Brian Burns. That's abysmal team-building and doesn't inspire confidence going forward. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Tanking for the top pick. The Panthers have been a disaster at quarterback since Cam Newton was injured midway through the 2018 season. It has cost Ron Rivera and Matt Rhule their jobs. The answer could lie in the top pick of the 2023 draft, which brings a strong quarterback class. -- David Newton
Chicago Bears (3-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.4%
I was as out as much as anyone on second-year passer Justin Fields a few weeks ago, but he has drawn me back in. He posted the second-best QBR game of any quarterback this season in a Week 9 loss to the Dolphins, which showed he still has real upside. But that upside won't matter this season -- even if Fields continues to play better, the defense is a major weakness. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Fields' continued development. The Bears don't need to worry about their future at quarterback unless something goes awry with Fields over their next seven games. He gives Chicago something to build around in 2023, and with more than $124 million in cap space and eight draft picks, the Bears have plenty of resources to devote to his future. Chicago figured out how to dominate with Fields' rushing ability. Now is the time to home in on his skills as a passer so he can become the most complete version of himself going into his third season. -- Courtney Cronin
Detroit Lions (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 1.6%
This defense is just too awful. By EPA per play, Detroit's defense is by far the worst in the league. And even though the Jared Goff-led offense showed flashes earlier in the season, the Lions are not going to make a run. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Defensive adjustments. After a Week 4 loss to Seattle, head coach Dan Campbell criticized the defense, saying the players "lack confidence." Before the Week 9 win against the Packers, the Lions' defense allowed 225 points, the second-most in franchise history through the first seven games. But after the firing of defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant and a players-only meeting, they had their best performance of the season in that 15-9 victory. -- Eric Woodyard
Denver Broncos (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.6%
The Broncos almost avoided the bottom tier, and part of that was prior faith in Russell Wilson. He was once a great quarterback, and theoretically he could be again. Cornerback Pat Surtain II and the defense are serious strengths, so even decent play from Wilson could get Denver a few wins. But at 3-6, it's starting to look like a loss year for Denver. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Offensive philosophy. Will the Broncos show consistent composure on offense and be willing to do what they're good at instead of what they wish they were good at? Too often their offensive woes are rooted in in-the-moment decision-making when coach Nathaniel Hackett or Wilson try to take too big a bite. Make more of the "right" calls, and the big plays will follow. Denver is wasting the team's best defense since 2015. -- Jeff Legwold
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.5%
Missing edge rusher T.J. Watt for seven games hurt, but I doubt he would have been the difference. Rookie Kenny Pickett might turn into a good NFL quarterback, but he isn't there yet. One positive is receiver Diontae Johnson, who ranks second in our Receiver Tracking Metrics' Open Score. It's a nice sign for the future, but 2022 is certainly over for Pittsburgh. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Watt. Pittsburgh could end up with Mike Tomlin's first losing season as a head coach. But Watt could help them return to .500, now that the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year is back after a pectoral muscle tear. Safety Damontae Kazee and cornerback Levi Wallace are also back from injuries. For the first time since Week 1, the Steelers have their full complement of defensive players, which could somewhat salvage the season. -- Brooke Pryor
Houston Texans (1-7-1)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
This one is simple. Houston is just nowhere close to a contender-quality team. The 2022 draft class provided some building blocks, but the Texans still need to figure out their quarterback position. -- Walder
X factor moving forward: Davis Mills. With the Texans among the favorites to land the No. 1 overall pick, Mills may be playing for his status as a starting quarterback in the NFL. He has been up and down in his second year, throwing 11 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. During this final stretch, Mills must prove he can be the long-term answer to convince the Texans not to draft a quarterback in the first round. -- DJ Bien-Aime