We're just over halfway through the 2023 NFL season, and fans are wondering whether their favorite team will make the playoffs. Sure, the standings tell us a lot, but they don't tell the whole story. Fluky wins, tough breaks, strength of schedule, tiebreakers, quarterback injuries -- they all affect a team's chances at a playoff berth.
I've broken down all 32 teams into eight playoff tiers -- from obvious Super Bowl contenders to the completely hopeless teams looking toward next season -- based on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), future strength of schedule, past performance metrics, future lines and a touch of gut feel.
Teams are organized within each tier based on their chances to make the playoffs, which were updated after Sunday's games. Stats are updated through Thursday night's game, unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Tier 1: The true Super Bowl contenders
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
Chances to make the playoffs: 99%
Chances to win the NFC East: 83%
The offense is humming and has shown its might through the air and on the ground at various points, and that has the Eagles not only thinking about making the playoffs but securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Their upcoming stretch -- at Chiefs, vs. Bills, vs. 49ers and at Cowboys -- will determine whether that becomes a reality.
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 99%
Chances to win the AFC West: 95%
There's a good side and a bad side to the Chiefs' No. 6 ranking in expected points added (EPA) per play despite having the best quarterback in the NFL. On the good side, it means the offense is still productive, but it also highlights how much Patrick Mahomes' pass-catchers have let him down. The Chiefs' defense (which is sixth in EPA per play entering Week 10) still gives this team scary potential.
San Francisco 49ers (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 98%
Chances to win the NFC West: 89%
The 49ers' three-game losing streak wasn't pretty, but make no mistake: They are not only shoo-ins for a playoff spot but a real threat to win the Super Bowl. With their stacked skill-position players and Kyle Shanahan's scheme to support quarterback Brock Purdy, no team is more efficient through the air than the 49ers, who ranked first in EPA per dropback entering Week 10.
Purdy, for his part, is second in QBR. Oh, and the 49ers just added defensive end Chase Young to a pass rush that already ranked seventh in pass rush win rate.
Tier 2: Playoff locks
Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 97%
Chances to win the NFC East: 17%
We've seen the Cowboys' upside in a string of blowout wins against the Giants, Jets, Patriots and Rams. We've seen the downside in their 42-10 loss to the 49ers in Week 5. Balance out the performances and they are a very good team with potential for greatness.
Entering Week 10, linebacker Micah Parsons had a 34% pass rush win rate -- on pace for the highest ever -- while CeeDee Lamb ranked second in our receiver tracking metrics overall score and Dak Prescott ranked fourth in QBR. If Dallas can put it all together, it is a legit threat to go all the way.
Detroit Lions (7-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 97%
Chances to win the NFC North: 78%
With Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins' injury (torn Achilles), the Packers' Jordan Love experiment failing and the Bears floundering, the stage had been set for the Lions to win the NFC North even if they weren't as good as they are this season.
Entering Week 10, the Lions ranked sixth in total efficiency (EPA/play across all three units, adjusted for garbage time). In addition, OT Penei Sewell has been exceptional in pass protection, ranking fifth among tackles in pass block win rate.
Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 94%
Chances to win the AFC East: 74%
Despite losing to the top three teams it has faced (the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs), Miami ranked first in EPA per play on offense entering the weekend. When the Dolphins have a man in motion at the snap -- as they do more often than not -- they're even better.
How the defense performs down the stretch could be the determining factor in whether they win the AFC East and make a playoff run. Their D has been mediocre thus far, but it's a unit with the talent to be a top-10 group, especially with All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey now healthy.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 89%
Chances to win the AFC North: 49%
No team has made a bigger leap toward being a true Super Bowl contender than the Ravens because of their progress on both sides of the ball. The offense has started clicking under new coordinator Todd Monken, ranking fifth in EPA per play and first in Weeks 6 through 9. Defensively, they rank second in EPA per play and in defensive open score, meaning their secondary tightly covers opposing wide receivers and tight ends.
Tier 3: Likely in, barring a collapse
Minnesota Vikings (6-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 86%
Chances to win the NFC North: 22%
Does quarterback Joshua Dobbs have even more magic in him? At first, it seemed Minnesota's playoff hopes were dashed with Kirk Cousins' season-ending Achilles injury. But after Dobbs led the team to upsets over the Falcons and Saints -- two of the Vikings' competitors for a wild-card spot -- Minnesota's season didn't seem quite so over after all.
Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense has been solid and a surprising bonus for the Vikings, who can more than hold their own against the rest of the candidates for the NFC's No. 7 spot even without their starting quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 79%
Chances to win the AFC South: 63%
The Jaguars are in an excellent position to make the playoffs, just not for the reason we thought entering the season. It has been their defense, which ranked fourth in EPA per play entering Week 10, leading the way (though a blowout loss to San Francisco doesn't help).
Jacksonville's weaknesses are on the other side of the ball, as the play of its offensive line and its pass-catchers' ability to limit drops will ultimately determine whether the team can evolve into something beyond being the likely AFC South champion.
Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 78%
Chances to win the AFC North: 29%
Defensive end Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward lead one of the NFL's best defenses, a unit that has kept its team firmly in the tight AFC playoff race. That has happened despite fairly disastrous quarterback play without Deshaun Watson and lackluster quarterback play with him. Cleveland's chances will hinge on Watson's availability and performance in the second half.
Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 72%
Chances to win the NFC West: 10%
Geno Smith ranked just 16th in QBR entering Week 10, but the Seahawks are in a pretty good position thanks to solid play on both sides of the ball, an easier-than-average schedule and a weak NFC that allows for a fairly straightforward path to a wild-card berth
Seattle has had a better-than-expected pass rush (ninth-best win rate) because of solid seasons from players such as linebacker Boye Mafe and defensive tackle Jarran Reed.
Tier 4: We're leaning yes
New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 61%
Chances to win the NFC South: 53%
It's better to be lucky than good. The Saints were the 14th-best team entering Week 10, according to FPI, but they play in the NFL's worst division. They also have played against the second-easiest schedule and will face the second-easiest going forward.
With all that working for them, their defense -- which ranked sixth best in EPA per play against both the run and pass -- should be enough to power them to the postseason.
Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 56%
Chances to win the AFC East: 25%
Wait, the Bills are all the way down here? I was surprised, too, but they have put themselves in danger. If they finish with 10 wins, they will have only a 65% chance to reach the playoffs, according to FPI simulations prior to Week 10. Getting to 11 wins is no lock, considering they still have to play the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins.
That said, if the Bills make the playoffs they are a serious Super Bowl contender. After all, they ranked second in offensive EPA per play entering Week 10, which is why I think they will ultimately reach the postseason.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 34%
Chances to win the AFC North: 6%
FPI seems to be a little off on Cincinnati, as the Bengals we saw in the first few weeks of the season are not who they are now. Quarterback Joe Burrow looks mostly recovered from his preseason right calf injury, which has improved an offense that ranked fourth in EPA per play in Weeks 5-9. The defense has gotten better, too.
If the Bengals can maintain this level of play, they should be able to overcome their 1-3 start.
Tier 5: On the fringes of hope and despair
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 53%
Chances to win the AFC North: 16%
The Steelers deserve credit for what they've done so far, which has put them firmly in the playoff chase. But I have a hard time buying this team going forward. They seem to have needed a huge defensive play in most of their wins, and Kenny Pickett ranked 27th in QBR entering Week 10.
Plus, they are in the NFL's toughest division and have four games left against their AFC North rivals.
Houston Texans (5-4)
Chances to make the playoffs: 53%
Chances to win the AFC South: 29%
The Texans are a long shot, but it's not that hard to imagine, is it? Because with what C.J. Stroud has shown -- he ranked 12th in QBR entering Week 10 after his 470-yard passing performance against the Buccaneers -- the best-case scenario seems possible. It's not just Stroud, either, as Houston's other young talent has stepped up. Defensive end Will Anderson Jr. has been a disruptive pass-rusher, and receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins are elevating the passing game.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 35%
Chances to win the AFC West: 5%
It's jarring to see the Chargers all the way down in this tier despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback, but here they are. The defense is a liability -- it ranked 26th in EPA per play heading into Sunday's games. L.A. is way behind Kansas City in the AFC West and might be forced to play for a wild-card berth.
Add the potential wild-card teams ahead of the Chargers on this list (two of Ravens, Bengals and Browns and one of Bills and Dolphins) and you can see the problem -- they need another team to slip up.
Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 25%
Chances to win the NFC South: 22%
The offense hasn't been cutting it. Desmond Ridder ranked 25th in QBR before coach Arthur Smith finally switched to Taylor Heinicke. There's little reason to believe Heinicke is a better option -- he would have ranked 25th in QBR last season had he qualified.
There is one major factor working in the Falcons' favor: the schedule. Not only have they played the league's easiest schedule entering Week 10, per FPI, but they have the easiest one remaining. That might be enough to nab the 7-seed in the NFC.
Tier 6: Stranger things have happened
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 35%
Chances to win the NFC South: 26%
The Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers offense has been surprisingly mediocre -- and I mean that as a compliment, because I certainly didn't envision it entering the season. That could be enough to sneak into the playoffs past the other NFC South misfits, but the Buccaneers are going to need luck on their side.
New York Jets (4-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 3%
Chances to win the AFC East: 1%
In this very same space a year ago, I wrote: "Quarterback Zach Wilson remains a problem, but everything else looks like a solution."
Twelve months and one Aaron Rodgers Achilles injury later, Wilson is still a problem -- as is the Jets' stubborn decision to not explore alternatives -- but so is the offensive line and the lack of a No. 2 receiver. That being said, the defense is fantastic, so I can't rule out a playoff run despite the Jets playing in the tough AFC East. (Oh, and Rodgers could still return too.)
Pat McAfee goes through the potential repercussions if the Jets decide to bench Zach Wilson.
Tier 7: Yes, I'm telling you there's a (slight) chance
Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 24%
Chances to win the AFC South: 6%
Here's something that really surprised me: Gardner Minshew ranked eighth in QBR entering Week 10. Obviously, he has had a smaller sample than most starting quarterbacks, but still. Indianapolis ranked 21st in FPI entering Week 10, so it would need quite a few breaks to go its way to sneak back into the playoff conversation.
Los Angeles Rams (3-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 14%
Chances to win the NFC West: 1%
The Rams have a tough road no matter what, but their probability of reaching the postseason hinges on the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford (thumb). Having him, along with receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, provides a chance for their offense to catch fire again. Without Stafford, it's on to 2024.
Green Bay Packers (3-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 9%
I can't envision a scenario in which the Packers reach the playoffs, but it is possible. Quarterback Jordan Love's accuracy issues (and drops by receivers, to be fair) have plagued Green Bay's season. The defense has also underperformed its talent level.
As with many other teams, the one thing Green Bay has going for it is playing in the weaker NFC.
Washington Commanders (4-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 3%
Sam Howell is a high-variance quarterback. The thing about variance? Sometimes it goes your way. That's what Washington will need.
Howell has started to get his sack problem in check recently -- he has been taken down just seven times in his past three games. If that's a sign of the future, that should give the Commanders a glimmer of hope. Still, there's a reason they were movers at the trade deadline.
Denver Broncos (3-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 2%
Weird things happen in football, but it's still difficult to shake Denver's stunning 24-9 upset of the Chiefs in Week 8. Was it a sign of the team figuring it out under coach Sean Payton? It had the least-efficient defense in the league entering Week 10, but one has to figure it will be better going forward based on the talent level.
Do I think a miracle happens here? No. But will I 100% rule it out? Also no.
Tier 8: Rest up for 2024
Tennessee Titans (3-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 4%
Newly minted QB1 Will Levis is still largely unknown but that gives Tennessee a sliver of upside, as does playing in the fairly weak AFC South. Still, I had a hard time buying the Titans as a playoff contender before the season. It's even harder now given their record and rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears (3-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 2%
Even if quarterback Justin Fields (thumb) is healthy the rest of the way and deadline acquisition Montez Sweat improves the pass rush, I don't see how this lackluster team can climb out of the hole it finds itself in. Bears fans seeking happiness should focus on their two (early) first-round picks next year.
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 1%
Interim coach Antonio Pierce seemed to bring some juice to the Raiders in his first game, earning a lopsided win over the Giants. But taking over this team would be a tall task for any coach. Las Vegas is very much a work in progress, even with All-Pro receiver Davante Adams still on the roster.
Arizona Cardinals (2-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
I tend to believe quarterback Kyler Murray is underrated, but even he has no shot to bring the Cardinals back from their current spot in the standings. The real question is whether they can win enough games to knock themselves out of the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes in the draft.
New England Patriots (2-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
In EPA per play, the Patriots ranked 29th on offense and 24th on defense entering Week 10. Mac Jones was 24th in QBR. Their best wide receiver (Kendrick Bourne) is out for the year with a torn ACL. Nothing is going right in New England.
New York Giants (2-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
This team's chances were slim to none with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Now that Jones is out for the season (torn ACL), the Giants' playoff chances have moved firmly to zero. Suddenly, this is a team that could be looking for a quarterback at the top of the 2024 draft.
Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 1%
Quarterback Bryce Young could ultimately have a successful NFL career. But we haven't seen that type of performance yet, as he ranked last among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR entering Week 10. Until his play improves -- and he gets more help around him on offense -- the Panthers won't be winners.