The offseason of Shohei Ohtani is officially upon us.
It begins with the Los Angeles Angels' five-day, exclusive negotiating window, a time when teams are given the first opportunity to keep their own players. In this case, it is merely a formality, a feeble attempt to delay the inevitable. Beginning Monday, the most uniquely talented player in baseball history will hit the open market, triggering a fascinating free agent sweepstakes rife with wonder, mystery and uncertainty.
Throughout the summer, while he navigated his third season as a transcendent two-way talent, speculation on the value of Ohtani's free agent contract became increasingly more outlandish, from $500 million to $600 million to (gulp) almost $800 million. His dominance on the mound, his prowess in the batter's box and his appeal around the globe -- not to mention his age, 29 as of July -- demanded it. Then Ohtani sustained another tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, underwent a second Tommy John surgery -- or some hybrid version of it, given the vagueness of his agent's description -- and further complicated a circumstance that was already without precedent.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the orthopedic surgeon who performed both of Ohtani's elbow procedures, wrote in a statement on Sept. 19 that Ohtani will be able to hit by the start of the 2024 season and resume a two-way role by 2025. But none of this is straightforward. The sample size of pitchers undergoing two UCL surgeries is relatively small, the number of success stories even smaller. Ohtani will navigate the arduous rehab while hitting, running, sliding and fulfilling all his duties as an everyday designated hitter, turning this into a guessing game for even the most educated people on the subject.
"It'd be a mistake to assume he won't be a two-way player again," a front-office executive for an American League team said recently. "But how many years of that can you get?"
It's a major uncertainty. But it is also coupled by an understanding that Ohtani is capable of being one of the greatest pitchers and one of the most dynamic offensive players in the sport -- all at once.
Ohtani won the AL's Most Valuable Player Award unanimously in 2021 and would have won it in 2022 if not for Aaron Judge's record-breaking home run season. He is all but guaranteed to capture the honor again in 2023, even though he barely pitched for the season's last two months.
From 2021 to 2023, Ohtani slashed .277/.379/.585 with 124 homers, 22 triples and 57 stolen bases, but he also won 34 games and posted a 2.84 ERA in 74 pitching starts, striking out 542 batters over 428⅓ innings. He ranked better than Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts in weighted runs created plus -- but also higher than Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, Shane McClanahan, Blake Snell and Dylan Cease in fielding independent pitching. His 26.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement easily led the majors.
The free agent deal Judge signed last offseason -- a nine-year, $360 million contract going into his age-31 season -- has been looked upon as a starting point for Ohtani. It might essentially be only half of it, though. Whatever is added to it would take care of the pitching aspect, which many throughout the industry expect to be highly incentivized based on starts or innings, given the uncertainty of Ohtani's elbow. Even with the surgery, Ohtani's deal could still make him the first $500 million athlete in North American professional sports history.
But a number of factors could change this in several directions. Ohtani could push for an opt-out after Year 1 or 2, allowing him to retest the market once he's done recovering from surgery as a pitcher. He could be swayed by one of the short-term, exceedingly high AAV deals that will surely present themselves over the winter. Or he could be drawn to a highly motivated owner who blows up the structure entirely by guaranteeing sums of money that other teams can't come close to matching.
Ohtani's silence has only added to the mystery.
It has been nearly three months since Ohtani last spoke publicly, and few people outside of him and his agent, Nez Balelo of CAA, truly know what he will prioritize moving forward. Some believe he has no interest in playing in a major city like New York, but others believe he wants to build a legacy. Some reference his burning desire to win, but others reference his appreciation for comfort. Some think weather will play a big part, but others think it will have more to do with the ballpark.
Nobody can actually say for certain -- but most agree his next destination can probably be narrowed down to these 10 teams.
Boston Red Sox: Ohtani, people around him say, has long been intrigued by Boston. The fact that New Balance, which signed him to a massive endorsement deal, is based there might help. But the biggest factor for the Red Sox might be three last-place finishes over the past four years, and a distaste by their passionate fan base in the wake of Betts' departure. Signing Ohtani could repair a lot of that ill will. The question is: Will the Red Sox act like a true big-market team and actually spend this winter?
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs, who already employ Japanese countryman Seiya Suzuki, are entering another contention window and could have more than $60 million come off the books with the departures of Cody Bellinger, Marcus Stroman and Jason Heyward. They're not afraid of exceeding the luxury tax, either. And they might have enough young pitching on the way to let Ohtani take his time coming back on the mound.
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels famously have not won while employing Ohtani, and it's hard to imagine how they'll do so in the near future if Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon don't find a way to stay healthy and put together MVP-caliber seasons. But there's a comfort there for Ohtani, a familiarity with the organization that helped him carve out this two-way role in the first place. And they're expected to make every effort to bring him back.
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have long been considered the favorites, for obvious reasons -- they reside in Southern California, boast a rich history, have proven to be the industry's most adept at sustained winning and have only two long-term deals on their books in Freeman and Betts. Before October, Dodgers ownership, sources said, was highly motivated to land Ohtani. Another early playoff exit might only escalate that.
New York Mets: Nobody has deeper pockets than Steve Cohen, who shelled out more than $500 million last offseason bringing in new players and extending his current ones. When a disappointing summer prompted the Mets to deal Scherzer and Justin Verlander, among others, the thought was that they would reset until 2025. But make no mistake: Cohen is going to make a huge effort to secure Ohtani.
New York Yankees: The Yankees owe Giancarlo Stanton $98 million over the next four years. He is essentially a DH at this moment. At some point soon, one would think, they'll have to keep DH open for Judge, too. Ohtani doesn't seem to make sense for the Yankees. But it's the Yankees. Regardless of whether they actually become heavily involved, they can't be discounted. Not for this type of player.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants went all out trying to sign Judge and had a deal in place with Carlos Correa before getting scared off by his medicals. Their strong desire for a superstar player to build around remains -- especially now that manager Bob Melvin has been hired away from the division-rival San Diego Padres. They'll undoubtedly be among the top bidders for Ohtani this offseason.
Seattle Mariners: Ohtani as a Mariner -- in a city with a heavy Japanese population and for a franchise that employed the legendary Ichiro Suzuki -- makes a lot of sense. The question is whether the M's can compete at these prices. Their last big free agent signing, Robinson Cano, did not go well. Ohtani, of course, is different -- and he'd fit in perfectly with their young nucleus.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers spent $500 million on a couple of middle infielders two offseasons ago, and yep, they could spend that much on one player this offseason. In fact, some consider the Rangers favorites to sign Ohtani -- and that was before all the added revenue that comes from securing their first World Series title in franchise history. Yes, their payroll is bloated. But four starting pitchers -- Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney -- will be off the books within the next two years. And Ohtani and Jacob deGrom would be ready to step into the rotation in 2025.
Toronto Blue Jays: The question with the Blue Jays seems to center on whether they can splurge on Ohtani and continually build a sustainable winner around him. But they'll have $50 million or so freed up in Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier and Hyun Jin Ryu. And they have enough starting pitching to wait a year while Ohtani recovers.