It took him 33 seconds to make an impact, and he isn't even one of Barcelona's top prospects. Forced into playing a key role because of a number of injuries, 17-year old Marc Guiu, fresh off of a scoring appearance with Barcelona's U-19 team in the UEFA Youth League, subbed into the senior team against Athletic Club last weekend and almost immediately scored the game winner in a 1-0 victory. The win kept Barcelona within one point of the LaLiga lead, and it served as a hell of a reminder of the upside the club boasts at the youth level.
Guiu probably isn't going to become an overnight star -- once attackers like Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha return from injury, his minutes will probably again become minimal -- but Barca might already have the world's best compilation of bright, young talent on its senior roster. And if they don't, Real Madrid might.
The best rivalries are, all at once, about the past, the present and the future. You always recall huge past meetings -- and typically, past stars still linger in and around the stadium, especially on derby days -- you always compare your spot at the table to that of your biggest rivals, and you're always keeping an eye on your -- and their -- future direction as well. And these three things take on more focus in El Clasico than in perhaps any derby in the sport.
This year's first Barcelona-Real Madrid meeting (Stream LIVE, Saturday, 10:15 a.m. ET, ESPN+ and ESPN Deportes) might be particularly geared toward the future.
Jude Bellingham, by far Real Madrid's best player so far, is still just 20 years old, as is another key player, midfielder and occasional fill-in fullback Eduardo Camavinga. Barcelona, meanwhile, is teeming with current and future stars: Among their 10 leading minutes earners in 2023-24 are 19-year old midfielder Gavi, 20-year old fullback Alejandro Balde and 16-year old winger Lamine Yamal. When healthy, 20-year old midfielder Pedri might be their best player, and 20-year old midfielder Fermin is playing a role, too. Ansu Fati, still only 20 and currently loaned to Brighton, has already scored 29 goals with six assists in all competitions for Barcelona over parts of four seasons. And now Guiu has made a mark, too.
To emphasize how well-stocked these clubs are in the youth department, allow me to don my college football cap for a second.
The football and futbol worlds are far more similar than fans of either sport generally want to admit. Most of the time when I say that, I am talking about the territorial nature of the sports, or teams' extensive histories and regional ties, or, often, the rampant and frustrating inequality baked into both sports. But it also applies to an obsession about the future.
In both sports, we treat the acquisition of prospects almost as a sport in itself. College football fans demand that their coaches not only beat their rivals on the field, but in the recruiting rankings as well. In both sports, we obsess over YouTube (or Hudl) highlight packages with outlandishly optimistic titles. And in both, a coach can often buy himself time by playing the youngsters and hinting at a bright future that might trump a dim present.
Granted, soccer doesn't have recruiting class rankings ... or does it? What are the Transfermarkt player values if not recruiting rankings of sorts? And where would Barcelona and Real Madrid fit on that ranking?
OK, so how are we doing this?
At Transfermarkt, a team of evaluators makes broad estimates of player value and compiles teams' total values as a status check of sorts. They are generally predictive: high-value teams tend to finish ahead of lower-value teams, enough so that the team at the now-defunct FiveThirtyEight incorporated Transfermarkt values into its preseason projections, just as I do with recruiting rankings in my college football SP+ rankings.
With that in mind, let's mash these worlds together a bit. Let's count any 20-and-under player with a €50 million value, per Transfermarkt, as a five-star prospect. There are 14 in all at the moment. Anyone over €5 million gets a four-star designation. There are about 160 of those players.
Let's add up the value of everyone's top 10 prospects and count that as a club's "recruiting class." What might it tell us about the young talent Barca and Real Madrid in particular have at the moment?
Barcelona boss Xavi says his side are in good shape for Saturday's clash with Real Madrid after their 2-1 win vs. Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League.
Good things. It will tell us very good things. Barca and Real Madrid boast nearly half of the world's "five-star" prospects, and dominate the recruiting rankings to an Alabama or Georgia level. (Come to think of it, Bama is nothing if not the Real Madrid of college football, and Carlo Ancelotti and Nick Saban boast more trophies than most of the sport could dream of. And just like Xavi, Kirby Smart was a memorable Georgia player before he became Georgia's coach. But I digress.)
Without further ado, here are soccer's 10 best "recruiting classes" at the moment.
1. Barcelona
- Five-star prospects: 4 (Pedri, Gavi, Lamine Yamal, Alejandro Balde)
- Four-star prospects: 2 (Ansu Fati/out on loan, Fermín López)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €322.8 million
For years, the proper strategy for world domination has been staring Barcelona in the face, and the club has given it only passing notice.
In 2019-20, the club spent a combined €270 million in transfer fees to acquire forwards Antoine Griezmann and Martin Braithwaite, midfielder Frenkie de Jong, left-back Júnior Firpo and goalkeeper Neto. The most impactful signing of the year: 16-year old Las Palmas prodigy Pedri (€17.5 million).
In 2020-21 and 2021-22, a combined €181 million in transfer fees went out the door to acquire forward Ferran Torres, midfielder Miralem Pjanic, left-winger Trincao and full-backs Sergiño Dest and Emerson Royal. The best newcomers: La Masia products Gavi and Ansu Fati and Ronald Araújo, acquired at age 19 for just €4.7 million.
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In 2022-23, Barca famously pulled financial levers to acquire Robert Lewandowski, Jules Koundé and Raphinha for a combined €153 million. Those signings admittedly worked out better. But they also acquired veterans Franck Kessié, Andreas Christensen, Héctor Bellerín and Marcos Alonso on high-salary free transfers. La Masia's Alejandro Balde has made a bigger impact than any of them.
In 2023-24, Lamine Yamal and Fermin have had an impact equal to that of veteran signings Oriol Romeu and Iñigo Martínez. (Another veteran signing, Ilkay Gündogan, has done well.)
When you are a membership-run club -- and your president is always running for reelection -- you always have to be seen as "Doing Something." That typically means spending big money on known stars. But a vast majority of Barcelona's recent big-money additions have either failed to improve the team, gotten in the way of youngsters' development, or both. But despite themselves, and despite spending over €600 million in transfer fees over five years with only a few positive effects, Barcelona has put together the strongest young roster core in the sport.
Injuries are wrecking the squad at the moment, with Pedri, Lewandowski, Raphinha, Kounde, de Jong and veteran Sergi Roberto all out and only three players (Gavi, Gundogan and goalkeeper Marc-Andre Ter Stegen) having played even 80% of minutes in league play. But again, they remain only one point behind Real Madrid and Girona for the LaLiga lead, and they also have more reinforcements they can call on if needed.
Attacking midfielder Noah Darvich, acquired this summer for €2.5 million from Freiburg's youth ranks, is 17, wonderfully creative and the subject of YouTube videos with titles like "Noah Darvich Is An Absolute Gem!" and "Noah Darvich -- World Class Potential" and "This Is Why Barcelona Signed Freiburg Wonderkid-Noah Darvich." Senegalese center-backs Mamadou Fall (acquired from LAFC after time with Villarreal's B team) and Mikayil Faye (signed from Croatian club Kustosija) are starring for Barca's B team. Midfielder Pablo Torre is serving as a "super-sub" of sorts while on loan with second-place Girona.
And then there are the Guiu-level prospects, the academy stars who haven't really even gotten on Transfermarkt's radar yet, but have all the sparkly YouTube highlight reels you could want: midfielders Marc Bernal (16) and Guille Fernandez (15), fullbacks Niko Takahashi (18) and Hector Fort (17), wingers Pocho Roman (19), Ángel Alarcón (19) and Dani Rodríguez (18).
La Masia is as productive as it's been in quite a while, and the club has had a sharp eye for youth talent at other clubs, too. The future is bright in a way that only sparkly recruiting rankings can make it.
2. Real Madrid
- Five-star prospects: 2 (Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga)
- Four-star prospects: 2 (Endrick, Arda Güler)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €292.5 million
Granted, Real Madrid's La Fabrica is known as much for creating talent for other clubs -- and solid transfer fees for Real Madrid -- as anything. For every Dani Carvajal (nearly 400 appearances for Real Madrid), there are a few Achraf Hakimis and Marcos Llorentes, La Fabrica products enjoying star turns elsewhere. However, while the club coaxed out one more Champions League title from the veteran core of Karim Benzema, Luka Modric, Casemiro, Toni Kroos, David Alaba and homegrowns Carvajal and Nacho in 2022, it was also undergoing a slow transformation.
Since their last "Galactico" star signing, 28-year old Eden Hazard for €115 million in 2019, they've spent most of their largest transfer fees on young up-and-comers: 18-year-old midfielder Eduardo Camavinga (Rennes) for €31 million in 2021, 22-year-old midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni (Monaco) for €80 million in 2022, 18-year-old midfielder Arda Guler (Fenerbahce) for €20 million in 2023 and, of course, 20-year-old midfielder Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund) for €103 million in 2023 as well. And they've already lined up a €37.5 million signing for 17-year old Palmeiras forward Endrick for next summer, too. (I went ahead and counted him as part of the "recruiting class.")
After losing patience with future stars like Takefusa Kubo and Martin Odegaard -- both of whom were acquired as teenagers, loaned out constantly, and moved on to other clubs permanently in their early 20s -- the club is doing a much better job of incorporating its youngsters. Stars Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo were both acquired from Brazilian clubs for €45 million each at age 18 and given room to develop. Camavinga has logged more than 5,500 minutes for the club since the start of 2021-22, and Tchouameni has recorded over 3,600 minutes since the start of last season. And, of course, Bellingham has somehow managed to exceed expectations immediately, scoring 11 goals (including three game-winners after the 80th minute) with three assists in his first 12 matches with the club.
Granted, spending big on youth doesn't always pay off. While Rodrygo has been a wonderful addition, it's safe to say that Los Blancos haven't gotten €113 million worth of quality from 21-year old 2019 additions Luka Jovic and Éder Militão. Militao, currently out with an ACL tear, has certainly been solid at worst, but Jovic scored just three total goals for the club and is already on his second team since his Real Madrid departure.
The youth focus is definitely paying off, though. This season, five of the 12 Real Madrid players with more than 600 minutes in all competitions are 23 or younger, and quite a few high-value youngsters are waiting their turn. Minor injuries have delayed Guler's debut, and that says nothing of current B-team stars like attacking midfielders Nico Paz (19) and Cesar Palacios (18) and forward Álvaro Rodríguez (19) and center-back Marvel (20), any of whom might have broken through already in a less loaded squad.
The club has also brought in potential future pieces like defender Vinicius Tobias (19) and forward Iker Bravo (18) on loan from Shakhtar Donetsk and Bayer Leverkusen, respectively, for B-team auditions. And 16-year old midfielder Pol Duran has generated appropriate YouTube buzz, with the requisite outlandish video titles ("Pol Duran Is Blowing Minds In Real Madrid," "Pol Duran Is Such A CRACK!"). There's not a lot of room in the squad at the moment -- something that certainly won't improve if the long-awaited Kylian Mbappé* addition actually happens at some point -- but there are quite a few Real Madrid youngsters who will likely become stalwarts for some club in the future.
*I almost got through this whole section without an Mbappe mention. Alas.
3. Chelsea
- Five-star prospects: 1 (Romeo Lavia)
- Four-star prospects: 9 (Levi Colwill, Lesley Ugochukwu, Malo Gusto, Carney Chukwuemeka, Deivid Washington, Lewis Hall-out on loan, Angelo-out on loan, Andrey Santos-out on loan, Cesare Casadei-out on loan)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €196 million
The separation between Barca, Real Madrid and everyone else on this list is massive. Chelsea, which have gone out and attempted to acquire every intriguing 18- to 22-year old footballer in the world over the past year-and-a-half, have a prospect value 33% lower than Real Madrid's and 39% lower than Barca's.
That said, the Blues do have lots of up-and-comers. They've loaned out quite a few, but Levi Colwill has played 96% of Chelsea's minutes this season, Malo Gusto is at 53%, and of the 20 players who have recorded at least 90 minutes for Chelsea this season, 13 are 22 or younger. And that doesn't even include five-star 19-year-old Romeo Lavia who, along with another star signing, Christopher Nkunku, has yet to play this season because of injury.
4. Bayern Munich
- Five-star prospects: 2 (Jamal Musiala, Mathys Tel)
- Four-star prospects: 0
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €165.9 million
Sometimes, a college football team's recruiting class is pretty top-heavy, and that certainly applies to Bayern as well. Musiala (20) and Tel (18) are among the nine most valuable youngsters in the world, and they account for 96% of the top 10 prospects' value at the club. Fullback/midfielder Frans Krätzig (20) and midfielder Taichi Fukui (19) are the only other under-21s to have seen the pitch for Bayern this season, and both come in under the €2 million mark, per Transfermarkt. But when two youngsters have managed to combine for eight goals and four assists by themselves this season, the future is bright all the same.
5. Brighton & Hove Albion
- Five-star prospects: 1 (Evan Ferguson)
- Four-star prospects: 4 (Ansu Fati-in on loan, Julio Enciso, Carlos Baleba, Facundo Buonanotte)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €138.1 million
Brighton have moved six players to richer Premier League teams for a combined €305 million over the past 18 months, but they're still just four points outside of England's top four. The best talent identifier in England predictably ranks highly here despite not even getting full-value credit for Barcelona loanee Ansu Fati, who has scored twice in his first 344 minutes with the club.
Evan Ferguson, with four goals in 448 minutes this season, only just turned 19, so he will qualify for Brighton's "recruiting class" for a while longer. And with just 437 combined minutes in all competitions this year, the other three players here -- Enciso, Baleba and Buonanotte -- are only now introducing themselves to us.
6. RB Leipzig
- Five-star prospects: 1 (Xavi Simons-in on loan)
- Four-star prospects: 4 (Castello Lukeba, Benjamin Sesko, El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Ilaix Moriba)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €119.2 million
Once you build a reputation for winning with youngsters, it becomes a lot easier to acquire the next batch.
RBL sold the rights to Christopher Nkunku, Dominik Szoboszlai and Josko Gvardiol for a combined €220 million this summer, but the only teams they've lost to this season are Manchester City and Bundesliga leader Bayer Leverkusen. They've played Bayern twice and come away with a win and a draw. Xavi Simons (85% of minutes), Castello Lukeba (69%) and Benjamin Sesko (33%), all summer 20-and-under acquisitions, have fit right in, as have other younger newcomers like forward Loïs Openda and midfielder Nicolas Seiwald.
At this point, it's almost seamless.
7. Manchester United
- Five-star prospects: 1 (Rasmus Hojlund)
- Four-star prospects: 4 (Alejandro Garnacho, Hannibal, Shola Shoretire, Alvaro Carreras-out on loan)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €112.5 million
It's always a concern that Manchester United -- another Barca-style "We have to be seen Doing Something at all times" club -- might not be capable of giving even a four- or five-star youngster the playing time and development plan required to thrive without sticking a bunch of veterans in front of him. And to be sure, of the five young players above, only two have played for United this season, only one more than 400 minutes. But at least with Hojlund, the team is so desperate for solid center-forward play that he'll get as many minutes as he can handle. With three goals in 692 minutes (all in Champions League play), he could eventually reward the investment, too.
8. Bayer Leverkusen
- Five-star prospects: 1 (Florian Wirtz)
- Four-star prospects: 1 (Arthur)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €94.5 million
It's jarring to realize that Florian Wirtz is still only 20 years old and won't turn 21 for another seven months. He provides most of Leverkusen's prospect value here, but Arthur, acquired from America MG this summer, gives the club another four-star talent; the club is getting star-level value out of 22-year olds Victor Boniface and Jeremie Frimpong at the moment, too.
Leverkusen hasn't produced quite as many big-money talents as fellow Bundesliga contenders RBL or Borussia Dortmund in recent years, but (a) they still produce more than most, and (b) Wirtz is really, really special.
9. Paris Saint-Germain
- Five-star prospects: 2 (Xavi Simons-out on loan, Warren Zaire-Emery)
- Four-star prospects: 2 (Cher Ndour, Ismael Gharbi-out on loan)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €92.2 million
Christopher Nkunku ... Kingsley Coman ... Moussa Diaby ... Mike Maignan ... Matteo Guendouzi ... Ferland Mendy ... Odsonne Édouard ... PSG has been even more, um, generous than Real Madrid in providing lots of bright, young talent for other clubs in recent years.
They continue to ask Simons to develop elsewhere -- he scored 22 goals for PSV Eindhoven last year before moving to RB Leipzig and immediately thriving this season -- and midfielder Ismael Gharbi (19) is plying his trade for Switzerland's Lausanne this year, too. It's a bit of an upset, then, that Warren Zaire-Emery, still only 17, has found a permanent place in the lineup. That he has indeed done so (he's played 84% of minutes for the club this season) speaks to his five-star upside.
10. Borussia Dortmund
- Five-star prospects: 0
- Four-star prospects: 4 (Youssoufa Moukoko, Giovanni Reyna, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Julien Duranville)
- Total value of top 10 prospects: €80.3 million
For the first time in a number of years, BVB doesn't have a five-star prospect in-house. Ousmane Dembélé, Christian Pulisic, Jadon Sancho, Erling Haaland and Jude Bellingham were all five-stars in recent seasons, but Youssoufa Moukoko is currently the most high-value prospect at €30 million. Still, between the four players listed above, plus others like defensive midfielder Abdoulaye Kamara (18), BVB boasts more depth of quality youngsters than most. Neither Moukoko nor Reyna have played much this season for various injury- or depth-related reasons, but Borussia Dortmund in no way lacks for upside.
And finally... classes No. 11-20:
11. RB Salzburg (€75.5 million)
12. Strasbourg (€66.8 million)
13. Liverpool (€64.3 million)
14. Lens (€59.5 million)
15. Newcastle United (€58.8 million)
16. Lyon (€58.3 million)
17. Tottenham Hotspur (€53.2 million)
18. Sporting CP (€51.2 million)
19. Manchester City (€49.3 million)
20. Ajax (€48.9 million)
I'm going to go ahead and make a mental note that, with Football Manager 2024 coming out in a few more days, Strasbourg might be an awfully interesting team to take over.
Five four-star players, plus a fifth on loan? I can work with that.