Week 10 of the 2023 college football season will be remembered for Clemson's upset of Notre Dame, Oklahoma State beating in-state rival Oklahoma, Texas taking down Kansas State in overtime, Arizona shocking UCLA and Washington pulling off a big win against USC. But how did the top draft prospects look during Saturday's action?
NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr., Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Steve Muench answered big draft-related questions coming out of the weekend's slate. Which NFL teams will be most intriguing next April? Who could be targeting a quarterback? And which prospect-to-team fits make the most sense?
Miller also picked out prospects rising after Saturday's action, and Reid identified players currently flying under the radar who could get a draft stock boost with more high-level play. Muench broke down a key highlight that is making him go back to the tape for more evaluation, and Kiper turned the page to Week 11 with a few things to watch for next weekend. Finally, our analysts emptied their notebooks with everything they saw and heard over this past weekend.
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Intriguing teams | QB-needy | Team fits
Risers | Under the radar | Back to the tape
Week 11 lookahead | Latest draft buzz, notes
Which NFL team could have the most intriguing 2024 draft?
Reid: The easy answer here is the Chicago Bears. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Bears have the second-best odds (36.9%) to earn the No. 1 overall pick and are trending toward two picks in the top five, thanks to their trade with the Panthers in March. There are a lot of different directions Chicago could go, but the biggest questions pertain to what happens with Justin Fields. Depending on his play after returning from his right thumb injury, the Bears might have a big decision to make: Pursue a quarterback in the draft to replace Fields, or entertain a trade-back situation for a second consecutive year.
Miller: The Bears will be a popular answer, but how about the Arizona Cardinals? They are the favorite to land the No. 1 pick (48.2%), according to ESPN's FPI, and will have a hard decision to make regarding the future of quarterback Kyler Murray if they do earn that top overall selection. This Arizona regime didn't draft Murray in 2019, and USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye appear to be franchise quarterbacks. Plus, the Cardinals own the Texans' first-round pick and will also be able to add to the wide receiver corps or secondary on Day 1.
Kiper: I'm with Matt here if we're talking about the most intriguing team. The Cardinals will have six total picks in the first three rounds, with three coming in Round 3. They have the capital to control the first two days of the draft. But let me call out another team for the sake of being different: the Washington Commanders.
Thanks to trading away edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat last week, the Commanders now have two second-round picks and two third-rounders to rebuild their roster. They're projected to pick in the top seven in Round 1, too. Do they believe in Sam Howell as their franchise quarterback? If there's even a hint of doubt -- remember, they have a new owner who already is retooling the front office -- they could use their picks to find the guy in April. They have to make these picks count. And oh, yeah, they now have huge holes at defensive end. This is an incredibly intriguing draft for Washington.
Muench: The New England Patriots will likely miss the playoffs for the third time in four seasons, and they haven't picked in the top 10 since they drafted current co-defensive coordinator Jerod Mayo in 2008. They are currently looking at the No. 5 selection, per ESPN's FPI, and they need to address multiple parts of the offense.
Quarterback Mac Jones (15th overall pick in 2021) hasn't done enough in his first three seasons to make the Patriots exercise the fifth-year option. But the Pats also badly need to improve the offensive line -- starting at tackle -- and must find a No. 1 receiver. Would coach Bill Belichick draft a talented left tackle and/or wide receiver early in the draft to see if Jones can elevate his play with a better supporting cast, or would he just want to start over at quarterback?
Predict an NFL team that will be selecting a first-round QB in April.
Kiper: I'll go with the Atlanta Falcons here. They just benched Desmond Ridder, a third-round pick in 2022, and are now starting veteran Taylor Heinicke. Ridder just hasn't shown enough as a consistent passer -- he has six touchdown passes and six picks this season. He's not the guy. The Falcons have a really solid roster on both sides of the ball, but they're not going to be realistic NFC contenders until they figure out their quarterback situation.
Atlanta is projected to pick in the middle of Round 1, but the front office should be aggressive in trying to move up, especially with a deep 2024 quarterback class. Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) is my third-ranked passer and could be available late in the top 10 picks, but some NFL teams also like Bo Nix (Oregon), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) and Jayden Daniels (LSU) as potential first-rounders. There's still a lot to figure out with this talented class, including which guys could return to school for another year.
Drake Maye connects for 31-yard TD pass
Muench: Here's a somewhat under-the-radar one to keep an eye on: the New York Giants. Quarterback Daniel Jones just signed a four-year deal in the offseason, which complicates matters. But he ranks 26th in QBR and has thrown six interceptions in six games this season. Plus, he has missed at least two games in four of his five seasons, and he left Sunday's game against the Raiders with a right knee injury. The initial fear, sources told ESPN, is that Jones has a torn ACL and could miss the rest of the season.
The Giants can draft a quarterback in 2024, keep Jones another year and then part ways when the cap hit lightens after the 2024 season. Why not just wait? New York could be in position to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in April, and both look special. And keep in mind the Giants picked up a second-round pick in the Leonard Williams trade, which could allow them to trade back into the first round late on Day 1 for a sliding QB.
What's your favorite prospect-team fit that could make sense?
Miller: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State to the Indianapolis Colts. Yes, it would be awesome to see Harrison play for his dad's former team. But can we also give Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson an elite playmaker at wide receiver? Harrison has excellent body control and breakaway speed, posting 914 yards and 10 TDs in nine games this season. Indy rookie Josh Downs looks like a really solid slot target, and he could pair perfectly with Harrison's downfield ability.
Reid: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama to the Washington Commanders. After trading away both Young and Sweat, there's a clear need off the edge for Washington. And since the Commanders already have a stout interior defensive line, Turner would be entering a situation where he could continue to grow. He has seven sacks this season and is getting pressure on nearly 20% of his pass-rush snaps.
Miller's draft risers from Week 10
Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington
Polk didn't make my initial scouting list this season, but the fourth-year redshirt sophomore is a physical, aggressive wideout at 6-foot-2 and 204 pounds. He bounces off contact and consistently runs through tacklers. He has 51 catches for 888 yards this season, and after catching his eighth TD on Saturday against USC, Polk will now crack my top 75.
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Daniels, my QB6, went off in a loss to Alabama with 219 passing yards, 163 rushing yards and three total scores. His lean 6-4, 210-pound frame does take a beating -- and he left the game in concussion protocol -- but he's an electric passer with excellent deep touch. And he is one of the best quarterbacks in college football when it comes to beating defenses with his legs. Daniels continues to impress me, and while the senior has an early-Round 3 grade at the moment, I might need to bump that up.
Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
Wilson was a big mover for me when I put together my recent top 50 board (No. 49), and he justified it on Saturday with a nine-catch, 143-yard day against Purdue. Wilson has been red-hot this season (10 touchdowns), and it's easy to fall in love with his burst and elite speed as a vertical route runner at 6 feet and 192 pounds. He looks like a lock to be a second-round draft choice.
Reid's draft sleepers to keep an eye on
Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
Powers-Johnson has continued to get better every week. An outstanding run-blocker, he has the power to latch on to defenders and finish. He plays with an aggressive demeanor, and his physicality has been infectious on the Ducks' offensive front. The 6-3, 320-pounder also has the range to make plays outside of the box on screens and when climbing to the second level on zone runs. I didn't have Powers-Johnson ranked coming into the season, but he's now my No. 3 center and could challenge for the top spot; he already has a strong Day 2 grade.
Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri
At 6-5 and 296 pounds, Robinson is a stout interior defender who bounces around the Tigers' defense, playing in multiple alignments. He has come into his own this season, with 5.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss, making a bunch of plays behind the line of scrimmage. His versatility was on full display against Georgia, as he finished with four tackles, a tackle for loss and a sack. Robinson was mostly getting late-Day 2/early-Day 3 grades entering the season, but he's now a contender to be a top-50 pick if his current level of play continues.
Jaylin Simpson, S, Auburn
Since making the transition from corner to safety before the season, Simpson has been Auburn's best defensive player. He already has four interceptions through nine games. And as an urgent run defender, he can fill his gaps aggressively downhill. Getting ball carriers on the ground quickly is one of his best traits; he's a wrap-and-finish tackler. Simpson still remains an early-Day 3 prospect but is also a prime candidate to rise during the pre-draft process.
Muench's Week 10 highlight that is sending him back to the tape
Clemson linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr.'s pick-six against Notre Dame
Clemson goes up 24-6 as Jeremiah Trotter Jr. picks off the pass and takes it to the house for a touchdown..
The instinctive Trotter reads Irish quarterback Sam Hartman's eyes so well here, undercutting the route and plucking the ball out of the air on his way to giving the Tigers an 18-point first-half lead.
It was his second interception of the season, and his fourth since the start of 2022. Trotter also slipped the running back and wrapped up Hartman for a key third-down sack on Notre Dame's second possession of the game; he's now up to 3.5 on the year. In addition to what he brings to the table as a pass defender, Trotter is a relentless and rangy run-stopper who leads Clemson in tackles (61). He projects as a Day 2 pick.
Kiper's three things to watch in Week 11
At 4-5, TCU hasn't had the season it wanted coming off a national title game appearance, but it could spoil one-loss Texas' season next Saturday. And the Horned Frogs have talent. Josh Newton is my sixth-ranked cornerback, and he'll have to cover Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, who have combined for 86 catches for 1,196 yards and 12 scores this season. Worthy is a burner, but don't discount the 6-foot-4 Mitchell's speed and tools, either. Both are really good players who could be top-50 picks.
In Miami at Florida State, I'll be keeping a close eye on Western Michigan transfer Braden Fiske, who hasn't stuffed the stat sheet at defensive tackle for the Seminoles but still impacts games. He has 25 tackles and a sack after having six sacks for the Broncos last season. He'll be matched up against two players in my top five rankings at their respective positions in left guard Javion Cohen and center Matt Lee, who have combined to allow one sack in nearly 1,000 snaps in 2023. The Hurricanes are another team that could spoil a College Football Playoff contender's hopes, and it starts with the play of their O-line.
Penn State cornerback Kalen King had a tough day against Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. two weeks ago, allowing seven catches as the nearest defender in coverage, and his next big test will happen against Michigan's Roman Wilson next weekend. Matt mentioned Wilson earlier, and my No. 10 wideout for next year's draft is coming off his best volume game of the season, as he caught nine passes for 143 yards in the win over Purdue. He's averaging 16.4 yards per catch on the year, too. Can King, who has first-round potential, shut down one side of the field? He's my No. 5 corner, but he could rise with a good performance.
Let's empty the notebooks ...
Miller:
• Texas' Xavier Worthy is mentioned often as a late first-rounder, and the junior wideout is one of the most improved players I've seen this season. After a sophomore campaign that saw him drop 10 passes and catch just 52.6% of his targets over 13 games, Worthy boosted those numbers in 2023 -- he has five drops this season, and his reception rate is 64.5%. His effort is noticeably better on tape this year, and Worthy has a chance to enter the top 20 for teams needing a vertical receiver thanks to his speed and burst.
• Georgia quarterback Carson Beck looked like an NFL passer in Saturday's win over a very good Missouri defense. Beck was 21-of-32 for 254 yards with two touchdown passes, and he has fans among NFL scouts. In fact, one AFC South area scout texted me on Saturday night that Beck should be in the Tier 2 quarterback conversation as a potential Day 2 selection.
Reid:
• After another strong performance against Mizzou, Georgia cornerback Kamari Lassiter's stock keeps trending up. His transition to the slot completely altered the game for the Bulldogs. At 6 feet and 180 pounds, Lassiter is a true press-man corner with above-average foot quickness, polished technique and some of the best tackling ability in the country. This season, his 31.8% completion percentage allowed into his coverage ranks within the top 20 in the FBS. Lassiter is the fourth-ranked corner on my board and has the potential to climb even higher.
• In yet another strong wide receiver class, two stand out as guys who could go much higher than expected: Xavier Legette (South Carolina) and Adonai Mitchell (Texas). Mitchell has been a touchdown and first-down machine, as 83.8% of his catches this season have resulted in a score or moving the sticks. He hauled in eight catches for 149 yards and a touchdown against K-State. And Legette pieced together another dominant performance, catching nine passes for 217 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville State. He is now sixth in receiving this season with 973 yards.